028
FXUS62 KMHX 180637
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
237 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASED FOR SUNDAY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY.
2) SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
3) COLD FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THANKS
TO WARM SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NOTABLY STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT. THIS WILL EQUATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S INLAND, WITH 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST. PLEASE SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MARCH 1
RUNNING ABOUT 10-50% OF NORMAL. LOCALLY HERE IN ENC, THIS
EQUATES TO RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING ABOUT 2-4" BELOW NORMAL OVER
THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ALMOST ALL OF ENC REMAINS IN SEVERE
DROUGHT (D2), WITH A SMALL PART OF MARTIN COUNTY IN EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3). UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ONLY ACT TO EXACERBATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WITH THE
ONLY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL COMING ON SUNDAY, WHICH ONLY LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 1/4" OR LESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OCCURS. STRONG SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WEEKEND'S COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWITCHING TO
STRONG N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE PROBLEMATIC, ESPECIALLY
FOR ANY FIRE STARTS. A STATEWIDE BURN BANS REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF NORTH CAROLINA, WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL FOUR NATIONAL FORESTS IN NC. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM THE
FOREST SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SUNDAY, THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OF LATE IS
FORECAST TO BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT A CHANCE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE,
WITH ONLY ABOUT 1/4" OR LESS OF RAIN. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE MODEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-50KT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IF
DEEP UPDRAFTS CAN FORM. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, WITH LOCAL HIGHS DROPPING BACK DOWN
CLOSER TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS MEANS HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S, WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S
TO START THE NEW WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LITTLE TO NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (AND
THUNDERSTORMS) MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR, WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT, BUT AT FIRST THESE
WILL BE MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EVENTUALLY, SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ENC BETWEEN SUNDAY WITH
A CHANCE OF SHRA, TSRA, AND SUB-VFR CIGS. A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS IS EXPECTED AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. DURING THIS TIME, WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25KT ARE
EXPECTED. LIGHTER WINDS RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
MARINE
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SWERLY AT 5-10 KT. S/SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT THROUGH TODAY.
SUNDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING, A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BRINGS SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15-30 KNOTS, HIGHEST ALONG
THE GULF STREAM WATERS. THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION, WITH WINDS RAPIDLY SWITCHING FROM SW TO N
BEHIND IT. THE NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BRING A QUICK
HITTING THREAT OF WIND GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS WITH HIGHER END OF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF AROUND GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT GUSTS, ELECTED TO ISSUE A A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM FROM DUCK TO OCRACOKE
INLET AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY RIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND SOUNDS/RIVERS
SURROUNDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND, BUT WITH A LIFESPAN OF < 6
HOURS EXPECTED, THIS CAN BE HANDLED WITH A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT OF SPECIAL MARINE WARNING INSTEAD OF ANY GALE
HEADLINES. REMAINDER OF THE WATERS NOT ALREADY MENTIONED ARE
ALSO CAPABLE OF SEEING SMALL CRAFT GUSTS, BUT LESSER CONFIDENCE
AND/OR SHORT DURATION PREVENTS THE ISSUANCE OF A SCA AT THIS
TIME.
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS, SEAS WILL ALSO BE QUICK TO BUILD
SUNDAY. 3-4 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BECOMES 4-5 FT SUNDAY LATE
MORNING WITH SOME 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTERNOON, POST
FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AND SEAS BUILD TO 5-10 FT,
HIGHEST ALONG THE GULF STREAM.
IN ADDITION TO THE ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS, SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IS ALONG THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS, WHERE
INSTABILITY IS THE HIGHEST. AMPLE DEEP WIND SHEAR BRINGS THE
THE THREAT OF WELL STRUCTURED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH. INLAND SOUNDS/RIVERS WILL HAVE
LESS INSTABILITY TO PLAY WITH, SO PROBABILITIES OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IS LESS, BUT STILL NOT ZERO.
OUTLOOK: WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY DECREASE MONDAY, BUT A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND ELEVATED
NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE CAROLINAS LATE-WEEK BRINGING SHIFTING WINDS AND ELEVATED
WINDS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/18 (SATURDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 90/2002 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 82/1995 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 93/2002 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 85/1976 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 92/2002 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE92/1976 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135-
150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...RTE/SGK
MARINE...RJ
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