528
FXUS62 KMHX 181937
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
337 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARINE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED AND ADJUSTED. GALE WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SCA
EXPANDED TO COVER REMAINING INLAND WATERS AND SERN COASTAL
WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY.
2) SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
3) COLD FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THANKS
TO WARM SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NOTABLY STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT. THIS WILL EQUATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S INLAND, WITH 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST. PLEASE SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MARCH 1
RUNNING ABOUT 10-50% OF NORMAL. LOCALLY HERE IN ENC, THIS
EQUATES TO RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING ABOUT 2-4" BELOW NORMAL OVER
THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ALMOST ALL OF ENC REMAINS IN SEVERE
DROUGHT (D2), WITH A SMALL PART OF MARTIN COUNTY IN EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3). UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ONLY ACT TO EXACERBATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WITH THE
ONLY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL COMING ON SUNDAY, WHICH ONLY LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 1/4" OR LESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OCCURS. STRONG SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WEEKEND'S COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWITCHING TO
STRONG N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE PROBLEMATIC, ESPECIALLY
FOR ANY FIRE STARTS. A STATEWIDE BURN BANS REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF NORTH CAROLINA, WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL FOUR NATIONAL FORESTS IN NC. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM THE
FOREST SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TOMORROW, THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OF LATE IS
FORECAST TO BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT A CHANCE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, THIS MORNING'S MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO
DWINDLE EXCITEMENT FOR TSTORM CHANCES AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE BULK OF THE FA. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST MAINLAND AREAS FOR FROPA WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE AND PORTIONS OF OBX RECEIVING
SLIGHTLY MORE, ONE OR TWO TENTHS. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
BE MODEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE, THE BULK OF THE FA
WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE
ON OUR WERN BORDER SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-50KT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IF DEEP
UPDRAFTS CAN FORM, THOUGH THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY. WE'LL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, WITH LOCAL HIGHS DROPPING BACK DOWN
CLOSER TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS MEANS HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S, WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S
TO START THE NEW WEEK. WARMING FROM 80/MID 50S SPLIT WED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL
AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL
CU DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. SW WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS
MIXED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HREF SHOWS A
20-40% PROBABILITY FOR SUB-VFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST BUT IT
IS LESS THAN 20% AT THE TAF SITES. CIGS LOWER SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NW AND GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KT.
MAINLY POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PUSH
ACROSS RTES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. PRED VFR EXPECTED
MOST OF NEXT WEEK BUT COULD SEE PATCHY LATE NIGHT, EARLY MORNING
FOG AT SOME TERMINALS.
MARINE
WINDS ARE GENERALLY S/SWERLY 10-15 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
SUN A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
SWERLY WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES WITH EARLY MORNING WINDS AROUND 15-20G25-30KT,
HIGHEST ALONG THE GULF STREAM WATERS. THROUGH THE DAY SUN, THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AREA WATERS, WITH WINDS RAPIDLY SWITCHING
FROM SWERLY TO NERLY. THE NERLY POST FRONTAL SURGE WILL BRING A
QUICK HITTING THREAT OF WIND GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS WITH HIGHER END
OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY
OVER GULFSTREAM AND OFFSHORE WATERS. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION
OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
ACTIVE SCAS IN PLACE, BUT HAVE MENTIONED GALE GUST WORDING IN
LATEST MWW ADDITIONAL DETAILS. THIS AFTERNOON, THE REMAINING
INLAND WATERS HAVE BEEN COVERED WITH SCAS, AS WELL AS SERN
COASTAL WATERS, ALL OF WHICH ARE FOR THE STRONG NERLY SURGE.
HAVE ALSO ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR OFFSHORE WATERS COVERING
FROM OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE INLET FROM 20-60NM. THOUGH GUSTS
OF 35-40KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OFFSHORE WATERS, THE DURATION
WAS NOT QUITE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALE HEADLINE ISSUANCE
ELSEWHERE.
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS, SEAS WILL ALSO BE QUICK TO BUILD
SUNDAY. 3-4 FT EARLY SUN AM BECOMING 4-5 FT SUNDAY LATE MORNING
WITH SOME 6 FT POSSIBLE. THE POST FRONTAL NERLY WINDS WILL
FURTHER BUILD SEAS TO 5-10 FT, HIGHEST ALONG THE GULF STREAM AND
OFFSHORE WATERS.
IN ADDITION TO THE ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS, SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ALONG THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS, WHERE
INSTABILITY IS THE HIGHEST. AMPLE DEEP WIND SHEAR BRINGS THE THE
THREAT OF WELL STRUCTURED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH. INLAND SOUNDS/RIVERS WILL HAVE LESS
INSTABILITY TO PLAY WITH, SO PROBABILITIES OF STRONG TSTORMS IS
LESS, BUT STILL NOT ZERO.
OUTLOOK: WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY DECREASE MONDAY, BUT A WEAKER BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUE BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRENGTHENING WSWERLY WINDS TO BECOME NERLY 15-25 KNOTS.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS LATE-WEEK
BRINGING SHIFTING AND ELEVATED WINDS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/18 (SATURDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 90/2002 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 82/1995 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 93/2002 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 85/1976 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 92/2002 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE92/1976 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ131-
136-137-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ182-184.
DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...CEB
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