594
FXUS62 KMHX 190705
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
305 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND GUSTS INCREASED AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE
DECREASED FOR MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
2) COLD FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MARCH 1
RUNNING ABOUT 10-50% OF NORMAL. LOCALLY HERE IN ENC, THIS
EQUATES TO RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING ABOUT 2-4" BELOW NORMAL OVER
THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ALMOST ALL OF ENC REMAINS IN SEVERE
DROUGHT (D2), WITH A SMALL PART OF MARTIN COUNTY IN EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3). TODAY'S RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10"
FOR MOST, WHICH IS NOT ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE THESE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OCCURS. STRONG SW
WINDS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWITCHING TO
STRONG N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY COULD BE PROBLEMATIC,
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY FIRE STARTS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30-35 MPH
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT INLAND.
DEEP MIXING IN THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS
ALLOWS FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES 20-25% AND WIND GUSTS AROUND OR
ABOVE 20 MPH. TUESDAY WE WILL REACH LOW RH'S, BUT WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
A STATEWIDE BURN BANS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH
CAROLINA, WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS AT ALL FOUR NATIONAL
FORESTS IN NC. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM THE FOREST SERVICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TODAY THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OF LATE WILL
BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA, A COUPLE HOURS
OF LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM RAIN IS POSSIBLE RIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
FOR MOST MAINLAND AREAS FOR FROPA WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE AND PORTIONS OF OBX RECEIVING SLIGHTLY MORE, ONE OR
TWO TENTHS. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE MODEST CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND OFFSHORE, THE BULK OF THE FA WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH
INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE ON OUR WERN BORDER
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KT WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IF DEEP UPDRAFTS CAN FORM,
THOUGH THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, WITH LOCAL HIGHS DROPPING BACK DOWN
CLOSER TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS MEANS HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S, WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S
TO START THE NEW WEEK. WARMING FROM 80/MID 50S SPLIT WED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL
AGAIN.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS AND A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
STRONG WINDS TO THE AIRSPACE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SKIES FREE OF ANY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS, WITH ONLY MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS PRESENT. THEREAFTER, A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A SURGE OF STRONG NW WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO
SE FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
CEILINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 2000-3000 FT FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, AND THE LOWEST CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS NE NC, WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF US 70 MAY SEE ONLY
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR LEVELS. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING, AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE GREATLY AS WELL, LEADING TO VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR EXPECTED MOST OF NEXT WEEK BUT COULD SEE
PATCHY LATE NIGHT, EARLY MORNING FOG AT SOME TERMINALS.
MARINE
WINDS ARE GENERALLY S/SWERLY 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SWERLY WINDS CONTINUE STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH WINDS AROUND
15-20G25-30KT LATER THIS MORNING, HIGHEST ALONG THE GULF STREAM
WATERS. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AREA
WATERS, WITH WINDS RAPIDLY SWITCHING FROM SWERLY TO NERLY. THE
NERLY POST FRONTAL SURGE WILL BRING A QUICK HITTING THREAT OF
WIND GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS WITH HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY OVER GULFSTREAM AND
OFFSHORE WATERS. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS HAVE TRENDED DOWN A COUPLE
KNOTS, BUT STILL ELECTED TO KEEP ALL MARINE HEADLINES IN PLACE,
SCA FOR ALL WATERS BUT OFFSHORE 20-60NM OREGON INLET TO
OCRACOKE INLET WHERE GALE WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE. GIVEN THE
SHORT DURATION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS CURRENTLY
UNDER A SCA, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ACTIVE SCAS IN PLACE, BUT HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF GALE GUST WORDING IN LATEST MWW ADDITIONAL
DETAILS. THOUGH GUSTS OF 35-40KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OFFSHORE
WATERS, THE DURATION WAS NOT QUITE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALE
HEADLINE ISSUANCE ELSEWHERE.
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS, SEAS WILL ALSO BE QUICK TO BUILD
SUNDAY. 3-4 FT AROUND SUNRISE BECOMING 4-6 FT LATE MORNING WITH
SOME 6 FT POSSIBLE. THE POST FRONTAL NERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER
BUILD SEAS TO 5-10 FT, HIGHEST ALONG THE GULF STREAM AND
OFFSHORE WATERS.
IN ADDITION TO THE ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS, SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ALONG THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS, WHERE
INSTABILITY IS THE HIGHEST. AMPLE DEEP WIND SHEAR BRINGS THE THE
THREAT OF WELL STRUCTURED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH. INLAND SOUNDS/RIVERS WILL HAVE LESS
INSTABILITY TO PLAY WITH, SO PROBABILITIES OF STRONG TSTORMS IS
LESS, BUT STILL NOT ZERO.
OUTLOOK: WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY DECREASE MONDAY, BUT A WEAKER BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUE BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRENGTHENING WSWERLY WINDS TO BECOME NERLY 15-25 KNOTS.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS LATE-WEEK
BRINGING SHIFTING AND ELEVATED WINDS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ182-184.
DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...RJ
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