621
FXUS62 KMHX 192229
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
629 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
2) LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN AND STIFF NERLY WINDS LINGER THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING
OFFSHORE.
3) MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MARCH 1
RUNNING ABOUT 10-50% OF NORMAL. LOCALLY HERE IN ENC, THIS
EQUATES TO RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING ABOUT 2-4" BELOW NORMAL OVER
THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ALMOST ALL OF ENC REMAINS IN SEVERE
DROUGHT (D2), WITH A SMALL PART OF MARTIN COUNTY IN EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3). TODAY'S RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10"
FOR MOST, WHICH IS NOT ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE THESE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OCCURS. STRONG N
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY COULD BE PROBLEMATIC, ESPECIALLY
FOR ANY FIRE STARTS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30-35 MPH FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT INLAND.
DEEP MIXING IN THE AFTERNOONS TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS
ALLOWS FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES 20-25% AND WIND GUSTS AROUND OR
ABOVE 20 MPH. TUESDAY WE WILL REACH LOW RH'S, BUT WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
A STATEWIDE BURN BANS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH
CAROLINA, WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS AT ALL FOUR NATIONAL
FORESTS IN NC. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM THE FOREST SERVICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AT TIME OF
WRITING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WITH LIGHTER STRATIFORM RAIN WORKING FROM W TO E
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER LAND AREAS WITHIN
THE FA CONTINUES TO DWINDLE, QUICKLY BECOMING HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TOTAL FOR
MOST MAINLAND AREAS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND PORTIONS OF
OBX, ONE OR TWO TENTHS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING TONIGHT
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT, POTENTIALLY DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW
MINTS MON MORNING TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S INLAND, MID 40S
INNER BANKS, LOW 50S OBX. MON, ANOTHER, ALBEIT WEAKER AND
COMPLETELY DRY, COLD FRONT SAGS S THROUGH THE FA, WITH WINDS
TEMPORARILY BEING LIGHT AND SWERLY IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGHS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70 IN SWERN ZONES. MINTS TUE AM A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER THAN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT LAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO A WARMING
TREND FROM 80/MID 50S SPLIT WED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WORK-
WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NERN PORTIONS OF THE FA, BUT MOST
LIKELY STALLS WHILE DISSIPATING BEFORE COMPLETELY CROSSING THE
AREA. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND WHEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL
CROSS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED THROUGH AND LIGHT RAIN IS NOW EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES LATER THIS EVENING. WIND WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS WELL WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
THIS COULD LEAD TO SHALLOW PATCHY FOG, THOUGH CURRENTLY THINK
DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THAT THREAT. MONDAY WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS IN
THE MORNING, BECOMING W TO NW WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO BKN CU WITH BASES AROUND 7 KFT.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR EXPECTED MOST OF NEXT WEEK BUT COULD SEE
PATCHY LATE NIGHT, EARLY MORNING FOG AT SOME TERMINALS.
MARINE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING OFFSHORE, LOCATED ALONG A SW-NE
LINE FROM ~40NM E OF HATT TO ~10-20NM SE OF LOOKOUT.
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A BAND
OF LIGHTER STRATIFORM RAIN LAGGING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BY A FEW
HOURS. STRONG NERLY WINDS DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT, GENERALLY
20-30G35-40KT. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AND ARE BEING COVERED WITH SMWS TO
COVER THE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS AS THE DURATION IS TOO SHORT TO
WARRANT A GALE WARNING, SAVE FOR OFFSHORE CENTRAL WATERS WHERE
THE LONE GALE WARNING PERSISTS. OFFSHORE GULFSTREAM WATERS FROM
OCRACOKE INLET S LIKELY TO SEE 40-45KT GUSTS, BUT THE DURATION
HERE IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN SHORTER. BUOYS SHOW SEAS 5-7FT, WITH
FURTHER BUILDING EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET, PEAKING @ 8-9FT OVER
OUTER WATERS. ACTIVE MARINE HEADLINES STEP DOWN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS RELAX AND SEAS LAY DOWN. WINDS POTENTIALLY
BECOMING COMPLETELY CALM OVER INLAND WATERS, 10-15KT OVER
COASTAL WATERS, 15-20KT OUTER WATERS AROUND SUNRISE. THE COLD
AIR AND CALM WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG OVER INSIDE WATERS IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY MON, BUT THIS IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH WEAKER
WINDS. WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME SWERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT 10-15KT
AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER OUT OF THE N BEHIND IT, 10-20KT WITH 25KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AND OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS FAR EERN
PORTIONS OF PAMLICO SOUND. SCAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POST
FRONTAL SURGE, BUT THOSE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL ACTIVE
HEADLINES ARE DROPPED TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY N-NERLY WINDS THROUGH INTO MID WEEK BEFORE
BECOMING SW TUE NIGHT/WED. WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM MIDWEEK ON
AHEAD OF A FRONT SLATED TO APPROACH FROM THE N BUT LIKELY STALL
OVER NERN PORTIONS OF REGIONAL WATERS FRI. ANOTHER BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS LATE- WEEK BRINGING SHIFTING
AND ELEVATED WINDS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEKEND WITH BETTER CHANCES OF A FRONT, AND PERHAPS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, CROSSING THE AREA.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
136-137-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ182-184.
DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...CQD/SK
MARINE...CEB
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