571
FXUS62 KMHX 200704
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
304 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASED MINT FOR THIS MORNING AND ADDED PATCHY FROST FOR
DUPLIN COUNTY. INCREASED MARINE WIND GUSTS FOR POST FRONTAL
WINDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, AND ISSUED SCA FOR WATERS OFF OF
HATTERAS ISLAND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS PERSIST
THROUGH THIS WEEK.
2) MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MARCH 1
RUNNING ABOUT 10-50% OF NORMAL. LOCALLY HERE IN ENC, THIS
EQUATES TO RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING ABOUT 2-4" BELOW NORMAL OVER
THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ALMOST ALL OF ENC REMAINS IN SEVERE
DROUGHT (D2), WITH A SMALL PART OF MARTIN COUNTY IN EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3). YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL WAS NOT ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE
THESE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OCCURS. DEEP
MIXING IN THE AFTERNOONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ALLOWS FOR
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES 20-25% AND WIND GUSTS AROUND OR ABOVE 20
MPH. TUESDAY WE WILL REACH LOW RH'S, BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
A STATEWIDE BURN BANS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH
CAROLINA, WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS AT ALL FOUR NATIONAL
FORESTS IN NC. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM THE FOREST SERVICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS HAS
MOVED INTO THE REGION AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS HAVE
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CRATER, WITH THE
COLDEST SPOTS INLAND IN THE UPPER 30S. MINTS ARE IN THE MID 30S
FOR SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA, INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S FURTHER NORTH INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST, LIGHT WINDS
PREVENT DECOUPLING AND TEMPS FROM CRATERING. PATCHY FOG HAS
ALSO BEEN OBSERVED INLAND THIS MORNING, LIKELY WORSENING AROUND
SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING.
TODAY, ANOTHER, ALBEIT WEAKER AND COMPLETELY DRY, COLD FRONT
SAGS S THROUGH THE FA, WITH WINDS TEMPORARILY BEING LIGHT AND
SWERLY IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS BACK DOWN CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN SWERN
ZONES. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE CHILLY YET AGAIN, WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW COLD WE ACTUALLY GET. SOME DRY AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP US FROM DECOUPLING TO
START THE NIGHT, BUT AS WE APPROACH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY CHANCES FOR DECOUPLING INCREASE. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 INLAND, UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST. CHANCE FOR FROST TUESDAY MORNING IS
LESS THAN 20% AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS, THROUGH TUESDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ENC FROM THE NORTH EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER AND LIFTING BACK
NORTH LATE-WEEK. WITH COLD FRONT STALLING TO OUR NORTH AND SW
FLOW CONTINUING BEYOND WEDNESDAY, WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS WELL AS
CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY IN THE HOURS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT THERE IS SOME
QUESTION OF HOW IMPACTFUL FOG WILL BE WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN...FOG
MAY BE DENSE, BUT VERY SHALLOW. THIS INCLUDES KPGV AND KISO,
WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST MAY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG,
SUCH AS KOAJ. FOR KEWN AND POINTS EAST, A LIGHT BREEZE SHOULD
LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS HERE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF THE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON,
WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, WITH
WIND GUSTS REACHING 20-25 KTS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH SUNSET.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY SOME LOWER MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR EXPECTED MOST OF NEXT WEEK BUT COULD SEE
PATCHY LATE NIGHT, EARLY MORNING FOG AT SOME TERMINALS.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE STEPPING DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH
ONLY HEADLINES LEFT A SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS OFF OF HATTERAS
ISLAND. WINDS DECREASE TO BE SUB 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS WEAK, TRANSIENT RIDGING MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH
THE TODAY, BUT THIS IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITHIN 20 NM OF
THE COAST WITH WEAKER WINDS. BEYOND 20 NM CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME SWERLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT 10-15KT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER OUT OF THE N BEHIND IT,
10-20KT WITH 25-30KT GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AND OUTER
WATERS AS WELL AS FAR EERN PORTIONS OF PAMLICO SOUND. SURGE OF
WINDS SHOULD BE 3-6 HOURS IN LENGTH. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
WATERS OFF OF HATTERAS ISLAND OUT TO 20 NM, AS THESE ZONES HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS FOR
6 HOURS. REMAINING COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND SOUNDS COULD SEE
GUSTS OF THIS INTENSITY, BUT CHANCES OF IT LASTING MORE THAN 3
HOURS IS SUBSTANTIALLY LESS.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY N-NERLY WINDS THROUGH INTO MID WEEK BEFORE
BECOMING SW TUE NIGHT/WED. WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM MIDWEEK ON
AHEAD OF A FRONT SLATED TO APPROACH FROM THE N BUT LIKELY STALL
OVER NERN PORTIONS OF REGIONAL WATERS FRI. ANOTHER BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS LATE- WEEK BRINGING SHIFTING
AND ELEVATED WINDS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEKEND WITH BETTER CHANCES OF A FRONT, AND PERHAPS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, CROSSING THE AREA.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...RJ
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