187
FXUS62 KMHX 201131
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
731 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASED MINT FOR THIS MORNING AND ADDED PATCHY FROST FOR
DUPLIN COUNTY. INCREASED MARINE WIND GUSTS FOR POST FRONTAL
WINDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, AND ISSUED SCA FOR WATERS OFF OF
HATTERAS ISLAND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS PERSIST
THROUGH THIS WEEK.
2) MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MARCH 1
RUNNING ABOUT 10-50% OF NORMAL. LOCALLY HERE IN ENC, THIS
EQUATES TO RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING ABOUT 2-4" BELOW NORMAL OVER
THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ALMOST ALL OF ENC REMAINS IN SEVERE
DROUGHT (D2), WITH A SMALL PART OF MARTIN COUNTY IN EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3). YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL WAS NOT ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE
THESE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OCCURS. DEEP
MIXING IN THE AFTERNOONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ALLOWS FOR
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES 20-25% AND WIND GUSTS AROUND OR ABOVE 20
MPH. TUESDAY WE WILL REACH LOW RH'S, BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
A STATEWIDE BURN BANS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH
CAROLINA, WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS AT ALL FOUR NATIONAL
FORESTS IN NC. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM THE FOREST SERVICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS HAS
MOVED INTO THE REGION AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS HAVE
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. TODAY, ANOTHER, ALBEIT WEAKER AND
COMPLETELY DRY, COLD FRONT SAGS S THROUGH THE FA, WITH WINDS
TEMPORARILY BEING LIGHT AND SWERLY IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGHS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN SWERN ZONES. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
CHILLY YET AGAIN, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW COLD WE ACTUALLY
GET. SOME DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD
KEEP US FROM DECOUPLING TO START THE NIGHT, BUT AS WE APPROACH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY CHANCES FOR DECOUPLING INCREASE.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40 INLAND, UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST. CHANCE FOR
FROST TUESDAY MORNING IS LESS THAN 20% AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS, THROUGH TUESDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ENC FROM THE NORTH EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER AND LIFTING BACK
NORTH LATE-WEEK. WITH COLD FRONT STALLING TO OUR NORTH AND SW
FLOW CONTINUING BEYOND WEDNESDAY, WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING SHALLOW FOG, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN WITHIN THE HOUR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
REST OF THE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A DRY
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, WITH WIND GUSTS REACHING 20-25
KTS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH ONLY SOME LOWER MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR EXPECTED MOST OF NEXT WEEK BUT COULD SEE
PATCHY LATE NIGHT, EARLY MORNING FOG AT SOME TERMINALS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OFF CAPE HATTERAS. THERE WILL THEN BE
A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF SEAS BELOW 6 FT, BEFORE STRONG WINDS
BRING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BACK TO THESE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH
THE TODAY, BUT THIS IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITHIN 20 NM OF
THE COAST WITH WEAKER WINDS. BEYOND 20 NM CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME SWERLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT 10-15KT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER OUT OF THE N BEHIND IT,
10-20KT WITH 25-30KT GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AND OUTER
WATERS AS WELL AS FAR EERN PORTIONS OF PAMLICO SOUND. SURGE OF
WINDS SHOULD BE 3-6 HOURS IN LENGTH. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
WATERS OFF OF HATTERAS ISLAND OUT TO 20 NM, AS THESE ZONES HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS FOR
6 HOURS. REMAINING COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND SOUNDS COULD SEE
GUSTS OF THIS INTENSITY, BUT CHANCES OF IT LASTING MORE THAN 3
HOURS IS SUBSTANTIALLY LESS.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY N-NERLY WINDS THROUGH INTO MID WEEK BEFORE
BECOMING SW TUE NIGHT/WED. WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM MIDWEEK ON
AHEAD OF A FRONT SLATED TO APPROACH FROM THE N BUT LIKELY STALL
OVER NERN PORTIONS OF REGIONAL WATERS FRI. ANOTHER BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS LATE- WEEK BRINGING SHIFTING
AND ELEVATED WINDS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEKEND WITH BETTER CHANCES OF A FRONT, AND PERHAPS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, CROSSING THE AREA.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...RJ
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