171
FXUS62 KMHX 201855
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
255 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
2) COOL, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST
A MODEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MARCH 1
RUNNING ABOUT 10-50% OF NORMAL. LOCALLY HERE IN ENC, THIS
EQUATES TO RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING ABOUT 2-5" BELOW NORMAL OVER
THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ALMOST ALL OF ENC REMAINS IN SEVERE
DROUGHT (D2), WITH A SMALL PART OF MARTIN COUNTY IN EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3). YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL WAS NOT ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE
THESE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OCCURS. DEEP MIXING
IN THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ALLOWS FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES 20- 25% AND WIND GUSTS AROUND OR ABOVE 20 MPH.
TUESDAY WE WILL REACH LOW RH'S, BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
A STATEWIDE BURN BANS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH
CAROLINA, WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS AT ALL FOUR NATIONAL
FORESTS IN NC. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM THE FOREST SERVICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY
A COLD FRONT AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE INLAND, SOME VERY LIGHT, PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP.
HOWEVER, THIS RISK DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY FROST HEADLINES. COOL, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO TOP OUT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LATE IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CHANGE FROM NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT REGIME. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS PATTERN, PLUS EASTERLY-PROGRESSING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW, MAY SUPPORT A MODEST INCREASE IN THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY-MONDAY.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS QUITE A BIT ON THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY DURING THAT TIME, BUT THE MAIN MESSAGE AT
THIS POINT IS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXITS FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER
PATTERN TO DEVELOP. FOR REFERENCE, THE LATEST 6-10 DAY
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER GIVES
ALL OF ENC A 40-50% CHANCE OF SEEING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NOT ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE WETTER
PATTERN, BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE'LL BE WATCHING IN THE COMING
DAYS, AS PRECIPITATION IS VERY MUCH NEEDED AROUND THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK
UP AS A DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, WITH WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KTS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH SUNSET. NO RAIN
FORECAST WITH THE FRONT WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS AROUND FL080
MOVING THROUGH. WINDS BECOME N-NEERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SKC AND LIGHT NERLY WINDS BECOMING
SEERLY LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE SEABREEZE TUE.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR EXPECTED MOST OF NEXT WEEK BUT COULD SEE
PATCHY LATE NIGHT, EARLY MORNING FOG AT SOME TERMINALS.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS THE ENC WATERS THIS
EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5-15KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY BUILD TO 10-20KT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS WHERE 25KT WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST
FREQUENT, AND WHERE THE GREATEST RISK OF 6FT+ SEAS ARE.
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF 2-4FT THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-5FT BY THIS EVENING, WITH 5-6FT EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. OVER THE OUTER WATERS, SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-8FT BY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LAY DOWN ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS BOTH AHEAD OF, AND BEHIND, THE FRONT,
WITH ANOTHER RISK OF 25KT WINDS. MARINE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE INNER AND COASTAL WATERS WITH THIS
FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS WELL.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT, A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAY
DEVELOP BY THE WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AND ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...RM
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