563
FXUS62 KMHX 202357
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
757 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANDED THE SCA TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS, THE SOUNDS AND ALLIGATOR RIVER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
2) COOL, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST
A MODEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MARCH 1
RUNNING ABOUT 10-50% OF NORMAL. LOCALLY HERE IN ENC, THIS
EQUATES TO RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING ABOUT 2-5" BELOW NORMAL OVER
THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ALMOST ALL OF ENC REMAINS IN SEVERE
DROUGHT (D2), WITH A SMALL PART OF MARTIN COUNTY IN EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3). YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL WAS NOT ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE
THESE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OCCURS. DEEP MIXING
IN THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ALLOWS FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES 20- 25% AND WIND GUSTS AROUND OR ABOVE 20 MPH.
TUESDAY WE WILL REACH LOW RH'S, BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
A STATEWIDE BURN BANS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH
CAROLINA, WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS AT ALL FOUR NATIONAL
FORESTS IN NC. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM THE FOREST SERVICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY
A COLD FRONT AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE INLAND, SOME VERY LIGHT, PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP.
HOWEVER, THIS RISK DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY FROST HEADLINES. COOL, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO TOP OUT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LATE IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CHANGE FROM NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT REGIME. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS PATTERN, PLUS EASTERLY-PROGRESSING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW, MAY SUPPORT A MODEST INCREASE IN THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY-MONDAY.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS QUITE A BIT ON THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY DURING THAT TIME, BUT THE MAIN MESSAGE AT
THIS POINT IS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXITS FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER
PATTERN TO DEVELOP. FOR REFERENCE, THE LATEST 6-10 DAY
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER GIVES
ALL OF ENC A 40-50% CHANCE OF SEEING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NOT ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE WETTER
PATTERN, BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE'LL BE WATCHING IN THE COMING
DAYS, AS PRECIPITATION IS VERY MUCH NEEDED AROUND THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS RTES. WINDS WILL BECOME NE BEHIND THE FRONT AND
COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT INLAND AND UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE
COAST FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. NE WIND AROUND 10 KT
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK BUT COULD SEE
PATCHY LATE NIGHT, EARLY MORNING FOG AT SOME TERMINALS.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH ACROSS THE ENC WATERS THIS
EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY BECOME NE AROUND 15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPANDED THE SCA TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE
NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS, THE SOUNDS AND ALLIGATOR RIVER, FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5FT BY THIS
EVENING, WITH 4-6FT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS.
OVER THE OUTER WATERS, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-8FT BY
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LAY DOWN ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS BOTH AHEAD OF, AND BEHIND, THE FRONT,
WITH ANOTHER RISK OF 25KT WINDS. MARINE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE INNER AND COASTAL WATERS WITH THIS
FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS WELL.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT, A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAY
DEVELOP BY THE WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AND ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ131-150-230-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...RM/SK
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