471
FXUS62 KMHX 210749
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
349 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STARTED STEPPING DOWN ON MARINE HAZARDS AS WINDS AND SEAS
IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AT LEAST A MODEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MARCH 1
RUNNING ABOUT 10-50% OF NORMAL. LOCALLY HERE IN ENC, THIS
EQUATES TO RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING ABOUT 2-5" BELOW NORMAL OVER
THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ALMOST ALL OF ENC REMAINS IN SEVERE
DROUGHT (D2), WITH A SMALL PART OF MARTIN COUNTY IN EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3).
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OCCURS. TUESDAY WE WILL
REACH LOW RH'S 20-25% INLAND, BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. DEEP MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWS FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES 20- 30% AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND OR ABOVE 20 MPH. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALSO HAVE LOW RH'S,
BUT WINDS GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW 20 MPH.
A STATEWIDE BURN BANS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH
CAROLINA, WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS AT ALL FOUR NATIONAL
FORESTS IN NC. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM THE FOREST SERVICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LATE IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CHANGE FROM NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT REGIME. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS PATTERN, PLUS EASTERLY-PROGRESSING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW, MAY SUPPORT A MODEST INCREASE IN THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY-MONDAY.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS QUITE A BIT ON THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY DURING THAT TIME, BUT THE MAIN MESSAGE AT
THIS POINT IS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXITS FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER
PATTERN TO DEVELOP. FOR REFERENCE, THE LATEST 6-10 DAY
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER GIVES
ALL OF ENC A 40-50% CHANCE OF SEEING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NOT ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE WETTER
PATTERN, BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE'LL BE WATCHING IN THE COMING
DAYS, AS PRECIPITATION IS VERY MUCH NEEDED AROUND THE REGION. IF
SATURDAY REMAINS DRY, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN A WARM SW FLOW REGIME.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY, AND THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE TOMORROW, WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, AND VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN, AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE YESTERDAY EVENING. NE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE STEPPING DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, AT
10-209 KNOTS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS, BUT STILL REACHING 25 KNOTS
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EASE OVER THE
NEXT 3-6 HOURS AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS HAVE BUILD TO 3-5FT, INCREASING TO
5-8 FT FOR GULF STREAM WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
LESSEN DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. SCA
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO DROP NORTH OF OREGON INLET, WITH PAMLICO
SOUND AND REMAINING COASTAL WATERS SOON TO FOLLOW THIS MORNING.
THE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PM WITH STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD
OF IT.
OUTLOOK: WEDNESDAY WILL BRING BUILDING SW WINDS AND SEAS BOTH
AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER,
WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF >25KT WIND GUSTS. MARINE HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE INNER AND COASTAL WATERS
WITH THIS FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS
WELL, BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL WATERS. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT, A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAY DEVELOP BY THE WEEKEND
WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
158.
DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...RJ
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