059
FXUS62 KMHX 211855
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
255 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARINE HEADLINES ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY DEVELOP BY THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A MODEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MARCH 1
RUNNING ABOUT 10-50% OF NORMAL. LOCALLY HERE IN ENC, THIS
EQUATES TO RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING ABOUT 2-5" BELOW NORMAL OVER
THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ALMOST ALL OF ENC REMAINS IN SEVERE
DROUGHT (D2), WITH A SMALL PART OF MARTIN COUNTY IN EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3).
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OCCURS. TODAY WE
WILL REACH LOW RH'S 20-25% INLAND, BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. DEEP MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWS FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES 20-30% AND WIND GUSTS
OF 20-30 MPH. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALSO HAVE LOW RH'S, BUT WINDS
GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW 20 MPH.
IN LIGHT OF THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY,
AND IN COLLABORATION WITH THE NCFS, AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF ENC FOR WEDNESDAY.
A STATEWIDE BURN BANS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH
CAROLINA, WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS AT ALL FOUR NATIONAL
FORESTS IN NC. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM THE FOREST SERVICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NW TO SE FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN NC MAY BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. THIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED
BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF MOISTURE WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DURING THIS TIME, MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE EVOLUTION OF A
SFC LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
THERE APPEARS TO BE 2 CAMPS IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE FIRST IS A
WEAKER LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY, LEAVING BEHIND A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BECOMES A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY. THE SECOND POSSIBLE SOLUTION IS FOR A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS WOULD
FAVOR A STRONGER PUSH SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT, WHICH THEN
FAVORS DRIER, BUT COOLER, WEATHER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
REGARDLESS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THAT LOW, INCREASING MOISTURE,
LIFT, AND INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR ONE, OR MORE, ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOCUSED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY/TUESDAY, BUT THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS OUTLINED ABOVE. WITHIN THIS
PATTERN, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY,
AND THIS IS SOMETHING WE'LL MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH GRADUALLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT WINDS, MO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS WE GET TOWARDS MIDDAY
WED, WINDS BECOME SW AND INCREASE CLOSER TO 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN AN INCOMING WEAK COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONGER TERM FORECAST AS MOSTLY
DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN, AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS,
COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LAY DOWN
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY REBUILD TO 15-25KT ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THESE MODERATELY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LAST INTO LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FOR THE COASTAL AND OUTER WATERS, SEAS OF 2-4FT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BUILD TO 3-6FT WITH THE BUILDING WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO 2-4FT BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY WEDNESDAY'S COLD FRONT,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS BETWEEN OREGON INLET AND OCRACOKE
INLET.
OUTLOOK: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE ENC WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM RISK
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD
BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW ENDS UP
DEEPENING OFFSHORE AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...RM
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