827
FXUS62 KMHX 220626
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
226 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BROUGHT MIN TEMPS DOWN FOR THIS MORNING GIVEN OBSERVATIONS. INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND MID- WEEK
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
2) INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MARCH 1
RUNNING ABOUT 10-50% OF NORMAL. LOCALLY HERE IN ENC, THIS
EQUATES TO RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING ABOUT 2-5" BELOW NORMAL OVER
THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ALMOST ALL OF ENC REMAINS IN SEVERE
DROUGHT (D2), WITH A SMALL PART OF MARTIN COUNTY IN EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3).
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OCCURS. TODAY WE
WILL REACH LOW RH'S 20-30% INLAND WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE
AFTERNOON BRINGS SW WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ALSO HAVE LOW RH'S, BUT WINDS GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE BELOW 20 MPH.
IN LIGHT OF THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY,
AND IN COLLABORATION WITH THE NCFS, AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF ENC FOR TODAY.
A STATEWIDE BURN BANS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH
CAROLINA, WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS AT ALL FOUR NATIONAL
FORESTS IN NC. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM THE FOREST SERVICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NW TO SE FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN NC MAY BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY CLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME, MODEL GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE EVOLUTION OF A SFC LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THERE APPEARS TO BE 2 CAMPS IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE FIRST IS A WEAKER LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY, LEAVING BEHIND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
BECOMES A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TUESDAY. THE SECOND
POSSIBLE SOLUTION IS FOR A STRONGER SURFACE LOW TO MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS WOULD FAVOR A STRONGER PUSH SOUTH WITH THE
COLD FRONT, WHICH THEN FAVORS DRIER, BUT COOLER, WEATHER TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
REGARDLESS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THAT LOW, INCREASING MOISTURE,
LIFT, AND INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR ONE, OR MORE, ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOCUSED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY/TUESDAY, BUT THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS OUTLINED ABOVE. WITHIN THIS
PATTERN, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY,
AND THIS IS SOMETHING WE'LL MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY, SHOULD THE WEAKER LOW SOLUTION
MATERIALIZE OVER THE WEEKEND, A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z GFS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID-
ATLANTIC MID- WEE AS A "WORST CASE SCENARIO". THIS COULD BE
PAIRED WITH VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS, MODEST INSTABILITY, AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE CAROLINAS AND DEEP SOUTH. MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK WILL ALSO BE WORTH MONITORING FOR ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES
IF OTHER MODEL SUITES COME TO THE SAME CONSENSUS. AT THIS POINT
THOUGH, THERE IS TOO MUCH UP IN THE AIR.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LOW OVERNIGHT WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS WELL BELOW LOW
TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHALLOW GROUND FOG IN
AREAS THAT DO DECOUPLE, BUT IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL IF IT DOES
DEVELOP. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TODAY AND WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT
DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR MOST OF
THE DAY BUT WILL SEE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS RTES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE COAST. A WETTER PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT COULD BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS
YET.
MARINE
SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY REBUILD TO 15-30 KT AND
BECOME SW'RLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THURSDAY HIGH BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH, KEEPING WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 10-20 KNOTS IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY.
FOR THE COASTAL AND OUTER WATERS, SEAS OF 3-5FT THIS MORNING
WILL BUILD TO 4-7FT WITH THE BUILDING WINDS LATER TODAY. SEAS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO 2-4FT BY EARLY THURSDAY,
BECOMING 2-3 FT LATE THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY WEDNESDAY'S COLD FRONT IN
THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN OREGON
INLET AND OCRACOKE INLET.
OUTLOOK: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE ENC WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM RISK
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD
BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW ENDS UP
DEEPENING OFFSHORE AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...RJ
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