417
FXUS62 KMHX 230004
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
804 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
2) INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... NO REAL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE
ENTIRE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MARCH 1
RUNNING ABOUT 10-50% OF NORMAL. LOCALLY HERE IN ENC, THIS
EQUATES TO RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING ABOUT 2-5" BELOW NORMAL OVER
THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ALMOST ALL OF ENC REMAINS IN SEVERE
DROUGHT (D2), WITH A SMALL PART OF MARTIN COUNTY IN EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3).
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OCCURS. FOR TODAY,
AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL
OF ENC UNTIL 8PM WITH RH'S ALREADY REACHING AROUND 25-35%
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR INLAND ZONES WITH RH'S CLOSER TO 40-50%
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OBX. MIN RH'S SHOULD REACH BETWEEN
20-30% AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WITH DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON
SW WINDS WILL GUST CLOSE TO 20-30 MPH. WINDS DO EASE TONIGHT AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AS WE GET INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A CONTINUED WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST AS TEMPS GET INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S. WHILE MIN RH'S
EACH DAY WILL REMAIN LOW (25-35%), WINDS GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE BELOW 20 MPH WHICH MAY PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
EITHER WAY, A STATEWIDE BURN BANS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
NORTH CAROLINA, WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS AT ALL FOUR
NATIONAL FORESTS IN NC. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM THE FOREST
SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ONCE AGAIN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST
THINKING AS THE AREA SEES SOME MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BUILD AS WELL AND WITH A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A
STALLED FRONT AT THE SURFACE DRAPED NW TO SE FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN NC, THIS FRONT MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY CLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER AND OFFSHORE. THIS IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE PATTERN CERTAINLY LOOKS
MORE ACTIVE IT DOES BECOME QUITE A BIT MORE COMPLICATED IN
NATURE WITH A WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP ALOFT BY THE END
OF THIS WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES THEN TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN STREAM JET AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT TRACK AND
LOCATION OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVES WILL DETERMINE OVERALL
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION THREATS BUT THINK THERE ARE MULTIPLE
CHANCES AT SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THIS
WEEKEND AND GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
GENERAL THINKING IS THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT ON SAT AND PUSHING OFFSHORE ON
SUN. THIS COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE, LIFT, AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR ONE, OR MORE, ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOCUSED SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY/TUESDAY, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND IF ANY ADDITIONAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES CAN PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. ILL NOTE GIVEN THE
ONGOING DROUGHT WHILE POP'S MAY BE HIGHER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
LATELY QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE MEAGER WITH ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES OF OF GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES OVER A 24 HOUR
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND BEING CLOSER TO 10-30% SO EXPECTATION IS
WHILE WE SHOULD GET SOME RAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW 0.5 INCHES OVERALL. IN ADDITION TO THIS, WITHIN THIS
PATTERN, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY,
AND THIS IS SOMETHING WE'LL MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS.
TRENDS FOR TUESDAY SUGGESTS A MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED TROUGH
OVERSPREADING THE AREA WHICH WOULD THEN LEAD TO A WEAKER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS ENC AND MORE OF A GENERAL THUNDER AND
SHOWER RISK WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY BEING LIGHT IN
NATURE ONCE AGAIN. WHILE ON THE LOWER END OF THREATS GIVEN THE
LATEST TRENDS THERE COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE POTENTIAL ONCE
AGAIN ON TUE DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW STRONG
THE FORCING IS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AS
WE GET CLOSER. LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO BE WORTH MONITORING
FOR ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES BUT GIVEN GENERAL UNCERTAINTY IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
JUST MONITOR THIS THREAT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 8-10K FT. KMHX RADAR SEEING
LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN RTES BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS
QUITE DRY AND DON'T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES TO
REACH THE GROUND. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 20-30 KT
NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND. LIGHT W
WINDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THRUSDAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE
PUSHING INLAND FROM THE COAST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. A WETTER PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT COULD BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS
YET.
MARINE
SW WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WITH
LATEST OBS SHOWING 15-25 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE PAMLICO SOUND
WITH 10-15 KT SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS NOTED ELSEWHERE.
AS EXPECTED THIS HAS RESULTED IN SCAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WITH THE FRONT NOT
MOVING THROUGH OUR WATERS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT THESE ELEVATED
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
ABATING. 2-4 FT SEAS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS AS WELL GIVEN THE ELEVATED SW
WINDS. ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH WITH A
STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS IN PLACE MUCH OF
THE DAY. WHILE SEAS LOWER BACK DOWN CLOSER TO 3-5 FT AND
EVENTUALLY 2-4 FT BY THURS EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT IN
THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN OREGON
INLET AND OCRACOKE INLET.
OUTLOOK: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENC WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED LOW ENDS UP DEEPENING OFFSHORE AS SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...RCF
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