506
FXUS62 KMHX 230715
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
315 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MARINE
ZONES. EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
2) INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... NO REAL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE
ENTIRE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MARCH 1
RUNNING ABOUT 10-50% OF NORMAL. LOCALLY HERE IN ENC, THIS
EQUATES TO RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING ABOUT 2-5" BELOW NORMAL OVER
THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ALMOST ALL OF ENC REMAINS IN SEVERE
DROUGHT (D2), WITH A SMALL PART OF MARTIN COUNTY IN EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3).
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OCCURS. A CONTINUED
WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST AS TEMPS GET INTO THE 80S
TO LOW 90S TODAY AND TOMORROW. WHILE MIN RH'S EACH DAY WILL
REMAIN LOW (25-35%), WINDS GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
BELOW 20 MPH WHICH MAY PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
EITHER WAY, A STATEWIDE BURN BANS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
NORTH CAROLINA, WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS AT ALL FOUR
NATIONAL FORESTS IN NC. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM THE FOREST
SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING AS
THE AREA SEES SOME MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BUILD AS WELL AND WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A STALLED
FRONT AT THE SURFACE DRAPED NW TO SE FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC INTO
EASTERN NC, THIS FRONT MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SOME ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY CLOSER
TO THE NC/VA BORDER AND OFFSHORE. THIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF MOISTURE WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE PATTERN CERTAINLY LOOKS MORE ACTIVE IT
DOES BECOME QUITE A BIT MORE COMPLICATED IN NATURE WITH A WEAK
BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP ALOFT BY THE END OF THIS WEEK, WITH
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES THEN TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET
AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE
INCOMING SHORTWAVES WILL DETERMINE OVERALL TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION THREATS BUT THINK THERE ARE MULTIPLE CHANCES AT
SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
GENERAL THINKING IS THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT ON SAT AND PUSHING OFFSHORE ON
SUN. THIS COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE, LIFT, AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR ONE, OR MORE, ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOCUSED SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY/TUESDAY, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND IF ANY ADDITIONAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES CAN PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. I'LL NOTE GIVEN THE
ONGOING DROUGHT WHILE POP'S MAY BE HIGHER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
LATELY QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE MEAGER WITH ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES OF OF GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES OVER A 24 HOUR
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND BEING CLOSER TO 10-30% SO EXPECTATION IS
WHILE WE SHOULD GET SOME RAIN, RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 0.5 INCHES OVERALL. IN ADDITION TO THIS, WITHIN
THIS PATTERN, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR AT
LEAST A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY, AND THIS IS SOMETHING WE'LL MONITOR IN THE COMING
DAYS.
TRENDS FOR TUESDAY SUGGESTS A MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED TROUGH
OVERSPREADING THE AREA WHICH WOULD THEN LEAD TO A WEAKER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS ENC AND MORE OF A GENERAL THUNDER AND
SHOWER RISK WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY BEING LIGHT IN
NATURE ONCE AGAIN. WHILE ON THE LOWER END OF THREATS GIVEN THE
LATEST TRENDS THERE COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE POTENTIAL ONCE
AGAIN ON TUE DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW STRONG
THE FORCING IS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AS
WE GET CLOSER. LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO BE WORTH MONITORING
FOR ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES BUT GIVEN GENERAL UNCERTAINTY IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
JUST MONITOR THIS THREAT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT W WINDS DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. A WETTER PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD BRING
PERIODS OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SW WINDS HAVE OVERPERFORMED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STALLED TO OUR
NORTH WITH LATEST OBS SHOWING 15-25 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 KTS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. ELSEWHERE
WINDS ARE BELOW 25 KNOTS WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT NOT AS TIGHT.
SMALL CRAFTS CONTINUE FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
SEAS 4-8 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET, HIGHEST ALONG THE GULF
STREAM, WILL SLOWLY ABATE THIS MORNING, BECOMING 2-5 FT THIS
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT GETS RENEWED SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS, INCREASING SW WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS. WHILE WINDS WILL EASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THE RESURGENCE TONIGHT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
EXTENSION OF THE SCA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENC WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED LOW ENDS UP DEEPENING OFFSHORE AS SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.
DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...RJ
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