174
FXUS62 KMHX 231903
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
303 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS PERSIST.
2) A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LATEST UPDATE FROM THE NC CLIMATE OFFICE KEEPS JUST
ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) CONDITIONS WITH A
SMALL SLIVER OF MARTIN COUNTY UNDER EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS.
THE LACK OF RAIN CONTINUES TO BE RATHER NOTICEABLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MARCH 23 RUNNING ABOUT
10-50% BELOW NORMAL. LOCALLY HERE IN ENC, THIS EQUATES TO RAINFALL
TOTALS RUNNING ABOUT 2-5" BELOW NORMAL OVER THAT SAME TIME PERIOD.
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OCCURS. A CONTINUED
WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS
WEEKEND AS TEMPS GET INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH SAT. WHILE MIN
RH'S EACH DAY WILL REMAIN LOW (25-35%), WINDS GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE BELOW 20 MPH OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE
DAILY SEABREEZE WHICH MAY PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
EITHER WAY, A STATEWIDE BURN BANS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH
CAROLINA, WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS AT ALL FOUR NATIONAL
FORESTS IN NC. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM THE FOREST SERVICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX SETUP IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, AS
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAVE DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS TO
THE SURFACE PATTERN LATER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME NOTICEABLE TRENDS BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE AND AI
GUIDANCE, BUT LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK PERSISTS.
WILL SEE A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRANSIT SE'WARDS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THE
SURFACE THIS WILL LEAVE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
STRETCHING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO
NORTHERN NC ON FRI. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE
CAROLINAS, COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT. AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW WOULD BE ALONG OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES. EITHER WAY PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT
OVERALL. FURTHER TO THE WEST, OUR NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A
SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL
TRACK E'WARDS ON SAT AND INTO SUN AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY TRANSITS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE, EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENC SAT AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
GENERALLY REMAINS 25 KTS OR LESS, INSTABILITY IS MEAGER, AND
GREATEST FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTH.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF OUR MORE ACTIVE PRECIP PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST PUSHING OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAM OVERSPREADING THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND BRINGING SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES QUICKLY
EAST INTO OUR AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN OVERALL WITH QUICK HITTING DISTURBANCES ACROSS ENC INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOME BETTER AGREEMENT THAT AS THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY PUSHES OFFSHORE A LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND
DEEPEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WHILE
PRECIP WILL FINISH BY SUNDAY, A DECENT N'RLY SURGE OF WINDS WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY/TUESDAY, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN AS WE HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE A FEW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION, AND IF ANY ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CAN
PUSH ACROSS AREA. I'LL NOTE GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT WHILE POP'S
MAY BE HIGHER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY, QPF AMOUNTS STILL LOOK
TO BE MEAGER WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF OF GREATER THAN 0.5
INCHES OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD THIS WEEKEND BEING CLOSER TO 10-30% SO
EXPECTATION IS WHILE WE SHOULD GET SOME RAIN, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 0.5 INCHES OVERALL.
TRENDS FOR TUESDAY SUGGESTS A MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED TROUGH CENTERED
TO THE NORTH WHICH WOULD THEN LEAD TO A WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ACROSS ENC AND MORE OF A GENERAL THUNDER AND SHOWER RISK
WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY BEING LIGHT IN NATURE ONCE AGAIN.
WHILE ON THE LOWER END OF THREATS GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE POTENTIAL ON TUE DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND HOW STRONG THE FORCING IS. LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK WILL
ALSO BE WORTH MONITORING FOR ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES BUT GIVEN
GENERAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO JUST MONITOR THIS THREAT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH BREEZY WERLY
WINDS AND FEW DIURNAL CU FIELD AHEAD OF THE SEABREEZE CURRENTLY
APPROACHING COASTAL TAF SITES. SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE SEABREEZE WITH
WINDS REMAINING GUSTY BUT MORE SERLY UNTIL TONIGHT. THIN MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT WITH RELAXING SFC WINDS. FRI,
VFR CONTINUES WITH WERLY WINDS AND SCT CLOUDS FL070-100 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: A WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK THAT COULD BRING PERIODS OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
WIDESPREAD S TO SW WINDS AT 5-15 KTS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED ACROSS OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS FORECAST TO CHANGE
TONIGHT AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MAXIMIZES AND ALLOWS SW'RLY WINDS TO
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS WHERE 15-20 KT SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AND 4-6
FT SEAS WILL BE NOTED. AS A RESULT THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE HERE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, 15 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS WILL
BE FOUND, SO WHILE CLOSE NOT EXPECTING TO EXPAND THE SCA
ELSEWHERE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN EASE ONCE AGAIN FRI MORNING
DOWN TO 5-15 KTS WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 3-5 FT. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAN ANOTHER EXTENSION OF THE SCA'S WILL BE NEEDED AS IT
APPEARS YET ANOTHER THERMAL TROUGH WILL SET UP ON FRI EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTY SW WINDS TO IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND CAPE LOOKOUT BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR NOW GIVEN IT IS
BORDERLINE.
OUTLOOK: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENC WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK COULD BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW
ENDS UP DEEPENING OFFSHORE AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.
DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...RCF/RJ
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