179
FXUS62 KMHX 090814
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
414 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FEW POSSIBLE SOURCES OF RAIN FOR TODAY. TREND CONTINUES DRIER
FOR SUN, BUT SCHC REMAINS FOR SOME INLAND AREAS LATE AFTERNOON/
SPC HAS ADDED SERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TO A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/5) FOR FROPA MON.
MARINE: NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AND HEADLINES
LIKELY FOR COASTAL WATERS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCAS INSIDE, GALE
POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) IT APPEARS THE BULK OF HEAVIEST SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF EASTERN NC OR OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEKEND.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED (80-90%). DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT, SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
3) A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT MIDWEEK REPRESENTING THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE AND WEAKLY SHEARED
SHORTWAVES SWEEP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND. GOM IS CUTOFF FROM MOISTURE WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE(S)
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION, AND THUS PRECIP LOOKS TO
BE MUCH MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE.
FOR SATURDAY, OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN (UP TO ~25-30% CHANCE)
WITH PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS (10-15% CHANCE) ARE STILL IN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS. BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN
ACROSS THE SERN COAST AND OBX WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED IN AN AREA BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW AND THE WERN
PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME
THUNDER (15-20%). IT WILL NOT BE AN ALL- DAY WASHOUT, BUT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN WITH AN ISO STORM WILL BE
PRESENT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND WEAK LIFT TRANSITS THE
AREA.
SUNDAY, FORECAST HAS TRENDED EVEN DRIER, WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT OVERRUNNING EVENT, AND THE FA IN
BROAD SRLY FLOW LEADING TO MAXT IN THE LOW 80S. CAN'T RULE OUT
A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE WERN FA (COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES) IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON, BUT BULK OF GUIDANCE ON THE DRY SIDE,
INCLUDING THE AIFS, WHICH AS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DECENT AGREEMENT ON NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE DECENTLY STRONG DYNAMICS WITH FAIRLY SHARP
TROUGHING ALOFT PIVOTING OVER ECONUS TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND POTENTIALLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES, BUT LATEST SOLUTIONS
HAVE THE MOST SUPPORT ALOFT ARRIVING SLIGHTLY LATER THAN THE SFC
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH NERN EXTENT OF THE FA AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE MAIN THREATS APPEARING TO BE
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL, ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.5K J/KG PER LATEST 09/00Z MODEL
SUITE WHICH IS NOW WITHIN THE WINDOW OF SOME REGIONAL GUIDANCE.
STILL OUTSIDE OF HIRES GUIDANCE RESOLUTION WINDOW, BUT AVAILABLE
MODELS SUGGESTS ANOTHER QUICK HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN FOR A
LOT OF THE AREA WITH THE SERN COAST POTENTIALLY SEEING UP TO AN
INCH AND A HALF THIS FROPA. SPC HAS ADDED A MARGINAL THREAT
(LEVEL 1/5) FOR THE CRYSTAL COAST, WHICH IS WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WOULD BE WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING ~HWY70 DURING
PEAK HEATING. STOUT CAA OUT OF THE N (STRONGEST WINDS OVER
COAST, 20-25KT GUSTS) WILL BRING IN COOL AIR AND KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR INTO MID- WEEK. UPPER 40S/UPPER 60S SPLIT TUE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A STACKED LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE SERN EXTENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFFSHORE BRINGS
WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA AROUND THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WITHIN A MORE BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF KMRH. IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW, BUT SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY ENE
WITHIN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
GREATEST RISK OF LOW CIGS AND TSRA EAST OF THE TAF SITES, BUT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD SKIRT RUNWAYS ALONG THE OBX. IN THE WAKE OF
THE MORNING ACTIVITY, A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOTHER RISK OF SCT SHRA AND TSRA. GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF THE AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY, THEREFORE I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SHRA/TSRA OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE AFTERNOON WAVE, GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN EITHER LOW STRATUS OR
BR/FG, AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
OUTLOOK: THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LOOKS TO
BE FOCUSED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
TOWARDS, AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH, ENC WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF
SHRA AND TSRA. REDUCED VIS AND LOWERED CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL.
MARINE
SEERLY WINDS BECOME MORE SWERLY WHILE STRENGTHENING TO 15-20KT.
WINDS ON THE GULF WATERS, ESPECIALLY S OF HATTERAS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 KT, BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SCAS FOR THE
TIME BEING DUE TO MARGINAL NATURE OF THESE STRONGER WIND GUSTS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW 6 FT. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS OVER THE GULF
WATERS WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH ON
SUNDAY, GENERALLY WERLY EASING TO 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE
MORNING, BECOMING MORE SERLY LATER IN THE DAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OUTSIDE OF ~40NM. SWERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN SOME SUN NIGHT INTO
MON AHEAD OF NEXT FROPA WITH SCA CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW OF 25+ KT MON EVENING
AND INTO TUESDAY. SCAS LIKELY FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WITH INSIDE
WATERS POTENTIALLY SEEING SCA GUSTS. OFFSHORE WATERS SHOWING
GALE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT MON INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. WINDS
DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES REESTABLISHES
ITSELF.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...TL/CEB
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