945
FXUS62 KMHX 091914
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
314 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HELD ONTO POPS SLIGHTLY LONGER ACROSS INLAND AREAS TODAY GIVEN
RECENT TRENDS IN GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WE DRY OUT TONIGHT.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED (70-90%). DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT, SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
3) A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT MIDWEEK REPRESENTING THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC AT THE MOMENT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ACROSS ENC (10-30%). MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
IS NOTED OFFSHORE (40-60%). THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND
PRECIP CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST. A SECOND MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY NOTED WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR SC/GA. THIS RAIN IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS WELL, KEEPING THE
AREA DRY BUT CLOUDY. NEXT CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HOW
QUICKLY CLOUDCOVER EXITS THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
IF WE SEE ANY FOG TONIGHT ACROSS ENC GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. IF CLOUD COVER STICKS AROUND
SHORTER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED A THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG WOULD
INCREASE (20-40%). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS THIS
EVENING TO SEE WHICH WAY THE FORECAST LEANS.
FOR TOMORROW, FORECAST CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE AREA REMAINS
MOSTLY DRY, WITH SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF TODAYS SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WILL NOTE IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SEABREEZE SETS UP TOMORROW AND WE
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS ON THE DRY SIDE. BROAD SRLY FLOW
ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO MAXTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW,
THOUGH WE HAVE SEEN SOME TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE. DECENT
AGREEMENT ON NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
DECENTLY STRONG DYNAMICS WITH FAIRLY SHARP TROUGHING ALOFT
PIVOTING OVER ECONUS TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
POTENTIALLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
LATER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE
FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID MORNING AND THE FRONT THEN GETTING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR MOST OF THE SUPPORT ALOFT TO ARRIVE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN THE
SFC FRONT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WITH THE MAIN THREATS APPEARING TO BE SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL, ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 0.5-1K J/KG PER LATEST 09/12Z MODEL SUITE WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE EARLIER 00Z GUIDANCE SO THIS TREND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. GIVEN THE TIMING FOR THE FRONT THIS WOULD
PUT THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ANY STRONGER STORMS CLOSER TO
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 70 MON. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANOTHER QUICK HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN FOR A LOT OF THE
AREA WITH THE SERN COAST POTENTIALLY SEEING UP TO AN INCH AND A
HALF THIS FROPA. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL THREAT (LEVEL
1/5) FOR THE CRYSTAL COAST, WHICH IS WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WOULD BE WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING ~HWY70 DURING
PEAK HEATING. STOUT CAA OUT OF THE N (STRONGEST WINDS OVER
COAST, 20-25KT GUSTS) WILL BRING IN COOL AIR AND KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR INTO MID- WEEK. UPPER 40S/UPPER 60S SPLIT TUE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A STACKED LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE SERN EXTENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFFSHORE BRINGS
WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA AROUND THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH
GREATEST CHANCES (15-20%) REMAINING ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
70. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIFT THIS EVENING
AND WE'LL LIKELY HANG ON TO A BROKEN DECK OF UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN MOISTENED
TODAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. IF IT WEREN'T FOR THE BROKEN DECK THAT'S FORECAST TO
LINGER OVERNIGHT, DENSER FOG COULD BE EXPECTED. THEREFORE, IF
THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, SOME AREAS COULD
RADIATE BETTER THAN OTHERS AND DROP VISIBILITIES TO LOWER THAN
THE 5SM THAT'S CURRENTLY INCLUDED FOR ALL TAF SITES FROM
08-11Z. TOMORROW, BROKEN UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT AND
DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP WITH EASTERLY WINDS AT 5 KT.
OUTLOOK: THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LOOKS TO
BE FOCUSED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
TOWARDS, AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH, ENC WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF
SHRA AND TSRA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. REDUCED VIS AND LOWERED
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.
MARINE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
FURTHER OUT TO SEA ENDING ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT LATE TONIGHT.
AS PREVIOUSLY STATED DID SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH SEAS REACHING 6 FT AS WELL THIS
MORNING. BUT, THIS GENERALLY OCCURED IN CONJUNCTION WITH
ONGOING SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE ON THE
DOWNTREND ONCE AGAIN SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SCA ISSUANCE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THOSE WATERS. OTHERWISE OBS CURRENTLY SHOW
WIDESPREAD 5-10 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. WINDS BECOME
SW-W AT 10-15 KTS TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE SEAS
REMAIN AROUND 3-5 FT.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SWERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FROPA
WITH SCA CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY FLOW OF 25+ KT MON EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. SCAS
LIKELY FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WITH INSIDE WATERS POTENTIALLY
SEEING SCA GUSTS. OFFSHORE WATERS SHOWING GALE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES REESTABLISHES ITSELF WITH
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST ON THURSDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...OJC/CEB
MARINE...TL/CEB/RCF
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