576
FXUS62 KMHX 100533
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
133 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DIMINISHED POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF ENC.
INTRODUCED SLGT CHC THUNDER MENTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WE DRY OUT TONIGHT.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED (70-90%). DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT, SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
3) A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT MIDWEEK REPRESENTING THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP.
AVIATION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF LIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC AT THE MOMENT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ACROSS ENC (10-30%). MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
IS NOTED OFFSHORE (40-60%). THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND
PRECIP CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST. A SECOND MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY NOTED WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR SC/GA. THIS RAIN IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS WELL, KEEPING THE
AREA DRY BUT CLOUDY. NEXT CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HOW
QUICKLY CLOUDCOVER EXITS THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
IF WE SEE ANY FOG TONIGHT ACROSS ENC GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. IF CLOUD COVER STICKS AROUND
SHORTER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED A THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG WOULD
INCREASE (20-40%). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS THIS
EVENING TO SEE WHICH WAY THE FORECAST LEANS.
FOR TOMORROW, FORECAST CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE AREA REMAINS
MOSTLY DRY, WITH SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF TODAYS SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WILL NOTE IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SEABREEZE SETS UP TOMORROW AND WE
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS ON THE DRY SIDE. BROAD SRLY FLOW
ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO MAXTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW,
THOUGH WE HAVE SEEN SOME TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE. DECENT
AGREEMENT ON NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
DECENTLY STRONG DYNAMICS WITH FAIRLY SHARP TROUGHING ALOFT
PIVOTING OVER ECONUS TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
POTENTIALLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
LATER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING THE
FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY MID MORNING AND THE FRONT THEN GETTING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR MOST OF THE SUPPORT ALOFT TO ARRIVE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN THE
SFC FRONT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WITH THE MAIN THREATS APPEARING TO BE SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL, ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 0.5-1K J/KG PER LATEST 09/12Z MODEL SUITE WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE EARLIER 00Z GUIDANCE SO THIS TREND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. GIVEN THE TIMING FOR THE FRONT THIS WOULD
PUT THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ANY STRONGER STORMS CLOSER TO
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 70 MON. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANOTHER QUICK HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN FOR A LOT OF THE
AREA WITH THE SERN COAST POTENTIALLY SEEING UP TO AN INCH AND A
HALF THIS FROPA. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL THREAT (LEVEL
1/5) FOR THE CRYSTAL COAST, WHICH IS WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WOULD BE WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING ~HWY70 DURING
PEAK HEATING. STOUT CAA OUT OF THE N (STRONGEST WINDS OVER
COAST, 20-25KT GUSTS) WILL BRING IN COOL AIR AND KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR INTO MID- WEEK. UPPER 40S/UPPER 60S SPLIT TUE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A STACKED LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE SERN EXTENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFFSHORE BRINGS
WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA AROUND THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DESPITE EXPANSIVE HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD, RECENT RAINFALL PLUS
LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG. AREA WEBCAMS
SUGGEST THE FG ISN'T DEEP ENOUGH YET TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION CONCERNS. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME DEEPER, MORE IMPACTFUL, FG DEVELOPMENT, AND THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY
IMPROVE BY 12-13Z SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL 1/4SM, OR LOWER, VIS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS. A SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SEABREEZE, BUT THE RISK OF SHRA OR TSRA ALONG
THE SEABREEZE APPEARS VERY LOW IN THE VICINITY OF ANY OF THE TAF
SITES.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH ENC ON
MONDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD
FRONT, WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER MONDAY, A LOWER IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION
APPEARS LIKELY ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
IS THEN EXPECTED MID-WEEK AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA IN THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME.
MARINE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
FURTHER OUT TO SEA ENDING ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT LATE TONIGHT.
AS PREVIOUSLY STATED DID SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH SEAS REACHING 6 FT AS WELL THIS
MORNING. BUT, THIS GENERALLY OCCURED IN CONJUNCTION WITH
ONGOING SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE ON THE
DOWNTREND ONCE AGAIN SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SCA ISSUANCE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THOSE WATERS. OTHERWISE OBS CURRENTLY SHOW
WIDESPREAD 5-10 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. WINDS BECOME
SW-W AT 10-15 KTS TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE SEAS
REMAIN AROUND 3-5 FT.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SWERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FROPA
WITH SCA CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY FLOW OF 25+ KT MON EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. SCAS
LIKELY FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WITH INSIDE WATERS POTENTIALLY
SEEING SCA GUSTS. OFFSHORE WATERS SHOWING GALE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES REESTABLISHES ITSELF WITH
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST ON THURSDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...CEB/RCF
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