221
FXUS62 KMHX 100833
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
433 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND
FOR NERN SURGE BEHIND FROPA MON.
PATCHY FOG ONGOING IN EARLY MORNING HOURS, THREAT FOR NECESSITY
OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING HOWEVER.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY DRY AND WARM SUN ON DECK, SEABREEZE SHOWERS CAN'T BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED (70-90%). DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT, SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY FROPA.
3) MONDAY'S FRONT LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUE INTO WED
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THU REPRESENTING THE NEXT WAVE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF LIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...YOUR MOTHER'S DAY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THE AREA REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE
YESTERDAY'S SHORTWAVE. WITH THAT SAID, LIGHT BACKGROUND WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SEABREEZE. LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO
A DIURNAL CU FIELD AND THE SEABREEZE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
BULK OF GUIDANCE HAS A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH A FEW HIRES
MODELS SHOWING THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE SHOWER THREAT. CARRYING
SCHC OF SHOWERS AND JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER. MAXTS IN THE MID 80S INLAND, MID TO UPPER 70S OBX AND
AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST COOLED BY THE SEABREEZE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW,
THOUGH WE HAVE SEEN SOME TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE. DECENT
AGREEMENT ON NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE
FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS WITH SHARP-ISH TROUGHING ALOFT PIVOTING
OVER ECONUS TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT APPROACHES.
FRONT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO ENTER THE NERN EXTENT OF THE FA
AROUND SUNRISE AND PUSHING S TOWARD THE CRYSTAL COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WITH THE MAIN THREATS STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS, AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE SEABREEZE AND THE COLD FRONT,
GENERALLY E OF HWY17 AND S OF HWY70. CAPE VALUES DIFFER WIDELY
BETWEEN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, ON THE ORDER OF 0.5-1.5KJ/KG WITH
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS MAINLY BEING FRONTAL TIMING.
EVENT TOTAL QPF HAS DECREASED FOR FAR INLAND AND NERN ZONES
THAT ARE AWAY FROM THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE,
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY, A TENTH TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE COULD SEE IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP UNDER STRONGER CELLS. SPC HAS
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL THREAT (LEVEL 1/5) FOR THE A SIMILAR AREA
AS YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK. SHOULD THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLOW ANY,
WOULD EXPECT THE OUTLOOK AREA TO INCREASE WITH MORE HEATING
PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY AS WELL AS GREATER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR STORMS AS THE TROUGHING ALOFT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO LAG BEHIND FROPA A FEW HOURS. STOUT CAA OUT OF THE N BEHIND
THE FRONT (STRONGEST WINDS OVER COAST, 20-25KT GUSTS) WILL
BRING IN COOL AIR AND KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR INTO WED. MAYBE
UPPER 40S, BUT MOST LIKELY LOW 50 MINS AND LOW 70S TUE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A STACKED LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE SERN EXTENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFFSHORE BRINGS
WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA AROUND THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DESPITE EXPANSIVE HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD, RECENT RAINFALL PLUS
LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN BR/FG. AREA WEBCAMS
SUGGEST THE FG ISN'T DEEP ENOUGH YET TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION CONCERNS. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME DEEPER, MORE IMPACTFUL, FG DEVELOPMENT, AND THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY
IMPROVE BY 12-13Z SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL 1/4SM, OR LOWER, VIS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS. A SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SEABREEZE, BUT THE RISK OF SHRA OR TSRA ALONG
THE SEABREEZE APPEARS VERY LOW IN THE VICINITY OF ANY OF THE TAF
SITES.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH ENC ON
MONDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD
FRONT, WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER MONDAY, A LOWER IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION
APPEARS LIKELY ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
IS THEN EXPECTED MID-WEEK AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA IN THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME.
MARINE
BEST BOATING DAY THIS WEEKEND TODAY. BUOYS CURRENTLY SHOW SEAS
3-4FT@5-7SEC. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
EASING WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING, GENERALLY WERLY BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE TURNING SERLY 5-10KT THIS AFTERNOON THESE
EASING WINDS WILL ALLOW THE 1FT@5SEC WIND CHOP OUT OF THE SSW ON
TOP OF THE BACKGROUND SWELL TO FALL OUT FURTHER CALMING SEAS;
2-3FT@7-8SEC OUT OF THE SE ALL THE WAY OUT TO 60+NM. WINDS
BECOME SW-W AT 10-15 KTS TONIGHT. WATERS INSIDE OF ~40NM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SHOWER AND TSTORM FREE THOUGH INLAND RIVERS
MAY SEE SOME SEABREEZE SHOWER ACTIVITY, 15-20% CHANCE.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): SWERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FROPA
WITH SCA CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY FLOW OF 25+ KT MON EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. SCAS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. FURTHER EXPANSION OF SCAS TO NERN RIVERS AND
SOUNDS REMAINS POSSIBLE, BUT CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE MARGINAL
OVER THESE WATERS CURRENTLY. GALE POTENTIAL HAS DECREASED SOME
FOR OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT MON INTO EARLY TUE MORNING, BUT
THE THREAT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS DOES REMAIN
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS S OF CAPE HATTERAS. WINDS DIMINISH LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES
ITSELF. MON'S FRONT LIFTS BACK N THROUGH THE REGION MID-WEEK
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT TO CROSS LATE WED/EARLY THU.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...CEB
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