243
FXUS62 KMHX 101903
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
303 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCAS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE NORTHERN INLAND SOUNDS AND RIVERS.
THE SEVERE THREAT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH AND DECREASED ON THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED (60-80%). ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HWY 70
CLOSER TO THE CRYSTAL COAST
2) MONDAY'S FRONT LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUE INTO WED
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THU REPRESENTING THE NEXT WAVE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH AS WE STILL EXPECT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO HAVE
FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS WITH SHARP-ISH TROUGHING ALOFT PIVOTING
OVER ECONUS TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT APPROACHES.
AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH
MOISTURE POOLING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS PWATS SURGE TO ABOUT
1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS ENC BY MON MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGEST FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND
SUNRISE AND PUSHING S TOWARD THE CRYSTAL COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS IS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT
HAS SHIFTED SOUTH, CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 70 AND ALONG
THE CRYSTAL COAST/OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS JIVES WITH THE LATEST
HI-RES GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOW SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHILE FURTHER
TO THE NORTH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A LOWER TSTM THREAT
RESIDES. MAIN THREAT WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS WOULD BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND HAIL. INSTABILITY WILL
BE MAXIMIZED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE SEABREEZE AND
THE COLD FRONT AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST,
GENERALLY E OF HWY17 AND S OF HWY70. LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
GENERALLY SHOW INSTABILITY VALUES BETWEEN 0.5-1.5KJ/KG. EVENT
TOTAL QPF HAS DECREASED FOR FAR INLAND AND NERN ZONES THAT ARE
AWAY FROM THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE, LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY, A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE COULD SEE IN EXCESS
OF AN INCH OF PRECIP UNDER STRONGER CELLS. SPC HAS SHRUNK THE
MARGINAL THREAT (LEVEL 1/5) TO JUST THE IMMEDIATE CRYSTAL COAST
AND POINTS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, SO AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS DIMINISHING BUT NOT ZERO JUST YET.
STOUT CAA OUT OF THE N BEHIND THE FRONT (STRONGEST WINDS OVER
COAST, 20-25KT GUSTS) WILL BRING IN COOL AIR AND KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR INTO WED. MAYBE UPPER 40S, BUT MOST LIKELY LOW 50
MINS AND LOW 70S TUE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STACKED LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE SERN EXTENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFFSHORE BRINGS
WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE SEABREEZE IS
MOVING INLAND. VARIABLE WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SEABREEZE IS LOW, BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
FEW LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT TO CALM, WHICH WILL CREATE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR ALL TAF SITES,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR EWN AND OAJ. 2-5SM BR (LOWEST NEAR
THE COAST) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 8-10Z AND IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 12-13Z. LOW STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL, BUT CLOUD COVER IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FEW TO SCT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TOMORROW, BRINGING INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. ALL TAF SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CIGS AROUND 2,500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND 18Z TOMORROW WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY NE WINDS. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE THE FRONT AND
SEABREEZE WILL INTERACT, WHICH COULD CAUSE REDUCTIONS IN VIS AS
WELL. ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER MID-WEEK
WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
GREAT BOATING WEATHER TODAY WITH 5-10 KT W'RLY WINDS AND 3-4 FT
SEAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. FURTHER OUT TO SEA FROM ABOUT
20-60NM EXPECTING 3-4FT SEAS AT ABOUT 7-8SEC OUT OF THE SE.
WINDS BECOME SW-W AT 10-15 KTS TONIGHT. WATERS INSIDE OF ~40NM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SHOWER AND TSTORM FREE. SWERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN SOME MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT FROPA WITH SCA
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW
OF 25+ KT MON EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. SCAS REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND THIS FORECAST CYCLE
WITH THE NORTHERN SOUNDS AND ALLIGATOR RIVER ALSO RECENTLY ADDED
AS WELL AS FUNNELING N WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE FREQUENT 25+ KT
GUSTS ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): GALE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO DECREASE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE THREAT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS DOES REMAIN OVER OFFSHORE WATERS S OF CAPE
HATTERAS. WINDS DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF. MONDAYS FRONT LIFTS BACK
N THROUGH THE REGION MID-WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT TO CROSS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO OUR WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...CEB/RCF
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