409
FXUS62 KMHX 110553
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
153 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCAS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE NORTHERN INLAND SOUNDS AND RIVERS.
THE SEVERE THREAT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH AND DECREASED ON THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 70 (60-80%).
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HWY 70 CLOSER TO THE CRYSTAL COAST
2) MONDAY'S FRONT LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUE INTO WED
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THU REPRESENTING THE NEXT WAVE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH AS WE STILL EXPECT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO HAVE
FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS WITH SHARP-ISH TROUGHING ALOFT PIVOTING
OVER ECONUS TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT APPROACHES.
AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH
MOISTURE POOLING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS PWATS SURGE TO ABOUT
1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS ENC BY MON MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGEST FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND
SUNRISE AND PUSHING S TOWARD THE CRYSTAL COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS IS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT
HAS SHIFTED SOUTH, CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 70 AND ALONG
THE CRYSTAL COAST/OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS JIVES WITH THE LATEST
HI-RES GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOW SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHILE FURTHER
TO THE NORTH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A LOWER TSTM THREAT
RESIDES. MAIN THREAT WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS WOULD BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND HAIL. INSTABILITY WILL
BE MAXIMIZED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE SEABREEZE AND
THE COLD FRONT AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST,
GENERALLY E OF HWY17 AND S OF HWY70. LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
GENERALLY SHOW INSTABILITY VALUES BETWEEN 0.5-1.5KJ/KG. EVENT
TOTAL QPF HAS DECREASED FOR FAR INLAND AND NERN ZONES THAT ARE
AWAY FROM THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE, LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY, A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE COULD SEE IN EXCESS
OF AN INCH OF PRECIP UNDER STRONGER CELLS. SPC HAS SHRUNK THE
MARGINAL THREAT (LEVEL 1/5) TO JUST THE IMMEDIATE CRYSTAL COAST
AND POINTS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, SO AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS DIMINISHING BUT NOT ZERO JUST YET.
STOUT CAA OUT OF THE N BEHIND THE FRONT (STRONGEST WINDS OVER
COAST, 20-25KT GUSTS) WILL BRING IN COOL AIR AND KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR INTO WED. MAYBE UPPER 40S, BUT MOST LIKELY LOW 50
MINS AND LOW 70S TUE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STACKED LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE SERN EXTENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFFSHORE BRINGS
WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT EASING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN NC
THIS HOUR. WHERE SOME SITES HAVE DECOUPLED, FOG HAS MANAGED TO
QUICKLY FORM - OAJ CHIEFLY AMONG THEM WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
VISIBILITIES BEING REPORTED. IF WINDS TO MANAGE TO EASE OR
OUTRIGHT DECOUPLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WHICH IS
FORECAST, MORE SITES ARE LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG
OF MVFR TO IFR LEVELS MAINLY AFTER 09Z THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING FOR NOW IS AROUND 30-40%. LOW
STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL, BUT CLOUD
COVER IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FEW TO SCT.
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM EWN SOUTHWARD AFTER 18Z. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS OF 40+ KT AND SMALL
HAIL. LOWERING CIGS WILL ENCROACH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE
STABLE AIR ALSO ENDING THUNDER CHANCES, AND MVFR WILL LIKELY
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND SUNSET BEFORE SCATTERING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER MID-WEEK
WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
GREAT BOATING WEATHER TODAY WITH 5-10 KT W'RLY WINDS AND 3-4 FT
SEAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. FURTHER OUT TO SEA FROM ABOUT
20-60NM EXPECTING 3-4FT SEAS AT ABOUT 7-8SEC OUT OF THE SE.
WINDS BECOME SW-W AT 10-15 KTS TONIGHT. WATERS INSIDE OF ~40NM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SHOWER AND TSTORM FREE. SWERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN SOME MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT FROPA WITH SCA
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW
OF 25+ KT MON EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. SCAS REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND THIS FORECAST CYCLE
WITH THE NORTHERN SOUNDS AND ALLIGATOR RIVER ALSO RECENTLY ADDED
AS WELL AS FUNNELING N WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE FREQUENT 25+ KT
GUSTS ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): GALE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO DECREASE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE THREAT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS DOES REMAIN OVER OFFSHORE WATERS S OF CAPE
HATTERAS. WINDS DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF. MONDAYS FRONT LIFTS BACK
N THROUGH THE REGION MID-WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT TO CROSS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO OUR WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...CEB/RCF
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