782
FXUS62 KMHX 111122
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
722 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARINE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THE NORTHERLY SURGE
BEHIND TODAY'S FROPA. THIS INCLUDES THE FIRST ISSUANCE OF AN SCA
FOR THE NEUSE RIVER, AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT, AND THE FIRST ISSUANCE
OF GALE WARNINGS FOR OFFSHORE WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE
LOOKOUT.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR SERN ZONES
TODAY. GREATEST THREAT REMAINS STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH
A CHANCE OF STRONGEST STORMS ALSO PRODUCING HAIL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE COLD
FRONT AND THE SLOW MOVING SEABREEZE, GENERALLY ALONG AND NEAR
THE CRYSTAL COAST.
2) MONDAY'S FRONT LIFTS BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUE INTO
WED FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THU REPRESENTING THE NEXT
WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARMING AND DRY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG SHORTWAVE TO PUSH THROUGH ENC TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO HAVE FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS WITH
TROUGHING ALOFT PIVOTING OVER ECONUS TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT CROSSES THE COAST. THE TREND OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
HAS BEEN TO DELAY ITS ARRIVAL TO MORE FOLLOWING THE FRONT AS
OPPOSED TO WITH IT, AS WELL AS BROADENING IT SOME COMPARE TO HOW
SHARP IT WAS FORECAST TO BE THREE TO FOUR DAYS AGO. AT THE SFC
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH MOISTURE POOLING
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS PWATS SURGE TO ABOUT 1.25 TO 1.75
INCHES ACROSS ENC DURING THE MORNING MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGEST FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND
SUNRISE AND CONTINUE PUSHING SLOWLY S TOWARD THE CRYSTAL COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS S OF HWY 70 AND E OF HWY17 ALONG THE
CRYSTAL COAST/OFFSHORE WATERS. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHILE FURTHER TO THE N MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A LOWER TSTM THREAT RESIDES. PRECIP IN THE
NERN HALF OF THE AREA IS LIKELY TO START AS SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, TRANSITIONING TO MORE OVERRUNNING/ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER IN THE DAY ONCE THE FRONT HAS SUNK S. MAIN
THREAT WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND HAIL. INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND
MIDLEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
BETWEEN THE SEABREEZE AND THE COLD FRONT LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES GENERALLY SHOW
INSTABILITY VALUES BETWEEN 0.5-1KJ/KG OVER NERN ZONES IN THE
MORNING WITH MORE ROBUST CAPE PROFILES ON THE ORDER OF
1.5-2KJ/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT IN THIS
CONVERGENCE ZONE. STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY
STRONGEST STORMS WITH A LOW END CHANCE OF SOME HAIL DEVELOPMENT
IN TALLEST/MOST PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LOOKS
TO BE MEAGER, DISCOUNTING THE TORNADO THREAT, BUT MESOSCALE
DYNAMICS ALONG THE CONVERGING BOUNDARIES MEAN BRIEF SPIN UPS
CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. SPC HAS BUMPED THE BORDER OF THE
MARGINAL THREAT (LEVEL 1/5) FURTHER N FROM YESTERDAY'S AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE, ABOUT BACK TO WHERE IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY,
HIGHLIGHTING THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.
GENERAL QPF FOOTPRINT HAS REMAINED THE SAME WITH THE TOTALS
COMING INTO BETTER FOCUS; EVENT TOTAL QPF FOR INLAND AND NERN
ZONES THAT ARE AWAY FROM THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE, LIGHT SHOWERS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
EARLY, A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. CONVERGENCE ZONE
MENTIONED ABOVE COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP UNDER
STRONGER CELLS. BULK OF PRECIP ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME STRAGGLING SHOWERS MAY SKIRT
THE INNER AND OUTER BANKS THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
STOUT CAA OUT OF THE N BEHIND THE FRONT (STRONGEST WINDS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT). THESE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER AREAS
ADJACENT TO WATER, 20-25KT GUSTS MAINLAND COAST, 25-30KT OBX
WITH INLAND AREAS SEEING GENERALLY 15-20KT. THE INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING IN COOL AIR AND KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
INTO WED. MINTS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S MOST, LOW TO MID
50S IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW 70S TUE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STACKED LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE SERN EXTENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFFSHORE BRINGS
WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE DECENT DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH
BUT CURRENT TIMING IS WORKING AGAINST IT WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY DUE TO FROPA OUTSIDE OF PEAK HEATING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS ECONUS AND SETS UP OFFSHORE
THROUGH LATE WEEK LEADING TO WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WINDS MANAGED TO BRIEFLY DECOUPLE THIS MORNING WITH VERY PATCHY
FOG, LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES, MANAGING TO DEVELOP AT MOST
TERMINALS. WITH THE SUN RISING AND WINDS PICKING BACK UP, FOG IS
EITHER BURNING OFF OR LIFTING TO LOW STRATUS DECKS AND WILL GIVE
WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR LATER THIS MORNING.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING TOWARDS PGV WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM EWN SOUTHWARD
AFTER 18Z. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS OF 40+
KT AND SMALL HAIL, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. LOWERING CIGS WILL
ENCROACH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE STABLE AIR ALSO ENDING
THUNDER CHANCES, AND MVFR WILL LIKELY LINGER THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND SUNSET BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN SOME SPOTS
EARLY TUES MORNING, WHICH COULD BE POSSIBLE IF WINDS MANAGE TO
EASE. THIS SEEMS MORE UNLIKELY THAN TODAY, AND ODDS OF FOG
FORMATION AT ANY GIVEN SITE IS AROUND 10%.
OUTLOOK: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH MID-WEEK WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
SWERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN SOME THIS MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT FROPA
WITH A STRONG NERLY SURGE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. FRONT CROSSES NERN WATERS THIS MORNING,
SERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS AND TSTORMS LIKELY OVER WATERS S OF HATTERAS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD WARRANT SMWS FOR STRONG WINDS AND
PERHAPS HAIL. LOWER POPS UP N, BUT STILL LIKELY TO SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MARINE HEADLINES
REFLECT GUIDANCE COMING IN STRONGER WITH THE POST FRONTAL NERLY
SURGE. COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT HAVE
BEEN UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS WITH STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 35-40KT RANGE. HAVE ADDED NEUSE/BAY RIVERS TO THE
INLAND WATER SCAS WITH NNEERLY WINDS FUNNELING OFF THE PAMSOUND.
COASTAL WATERS S OF LOOKOUT WERE OMITTED FROM GALE HEADLINES AS
THE BULK OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE GULF
STREAM WATERS 15-20NM OUT. THE NERN COASTAL WATERS WERE LEFT AS
AN SCA AS GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED HERE.
FAR EERN PORTIONS OF THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
EVENING, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE ZONE WILL SEE GUSTS AOB 30KT.
ALL PRECIP ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MOVE OUTSIDE OF 60NM AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY INTO LATEWEEK): WINDS DIMINISH LATER TUE INTO
WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY REESTABLISHES ITSELF. SCAS WILL BE
NEEDED ONCE THE COASTAL WATER GALES DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH SEAS OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THESE WATERS REMAINING
6+FT THROUGH TUE. TODAY'S FRONT LIFTS BACK N THROUGH THE REGION
MID- WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT TO CROSS LATE WED INTO THU,
BRINGING YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS, STORMS, AND SCA
CONDITIONS TO OUR WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE AFTER
THE MIDWEEK FRONT ALLOWING FOR CALMING SEAS AND RELAXING WINDS
WITH A DRY AND WARMING FORECAST LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ156-182-184-186.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...CEB
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