854
FXUS62 KMHX 111950
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
350 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED TO END SOONER THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONCLUDE THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTY NE WINDS CONTINUING INTO NIGHT.
2) TODAY'S FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY,
WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFFSHORE BUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH
INLAND AND 30-35 MPH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS STOUT CAA BUILDS IN. THIS WILL KNOCK TONIGHT'S LOWS
DOWN TO THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND 60S ALONG THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STACKED LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFFSHORE BRINGS
WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE DECENT DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH BUT CURRENT
TIMING IS WORKING AGAINST IT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
FROPA BEING OUTSIDE OF PEAK HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITS ECONUS AND SETS UP OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE WEEK
LEADING TO A WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE CRYSTAL COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING KEEPING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES (OAJ/EWN) OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS OF 40+ KT AND SMALL
HAIL, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. LOWERING CIGS WILL ENCROACH BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE STABLE AIR ALSO ENDING THUNDER CHANCES,
AND MVFR WILL LIKELY LINGER THIS AFTERNOON TO AFTER SUNSET BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
GUIDANCE CAN COME IN SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS OF THIS UPDATE FOR EARLY TUES MORNING MAINLY
BETWEEN 9-12Z TUESDAY, WITH HREF PROBS OF LESS THAN 5 MILE VIS
AT ABOUT 20-40%. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS BUT AN ADDITIONAL
MENTION OF FOG MAY BE IN THE CARDS IF TRENDS CONTINUE FOR ALL
TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH MID-WEEK WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THIS SURGE WILL BRING STRONG WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 KT ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE 0-60 NM ZONES FROM
OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT,
GRADUALLY RELAXING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE BRIEF ACROSS THE 20-60 NM ZONES ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
SEAS WILL PEAK TONIGHT AT 5-10 FT AND SUBSIDE TO 3-7 FT BY
TUESDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK): WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE TO 10-15 KT. SCAS WILL BE
NEEDED ONCE THE COASTAL WATER GALES DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH SEAS OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THESE WATERS REMAINING
6+FT THROUGH TUESDAY. TODAY'S FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION MID- WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT TO CROSS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND
OF SHOWERS, STORMS, AND SCA CONDITIONS TO OUR WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE AFTER THE MIDWEEK FRONT ALLOWING FOR
CALMING SEAS AND RELAXING WINDS WITH A DRY AND WARMING FORECAST
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-182-184-186.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...CEB/OJC
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...CEB/OJC
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