232
FXUS62 KMHX 112328
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
728 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED TO END SOONER THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONCLUDE THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTY NE WINDS CONTINUING INTO NIGHT.
2) TODAY'S FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY,
WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFFSHORE BUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH
INLAND AND 30-35 MPH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS STOUT CAA BUILDS IN. THIS WILL KNOCK TONIGHT'S LOWS
DOWN TO THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND 60S ALONG THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STACKED LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFFSHORE BRINGS
WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE DECENT DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH BUT CURRENT
TIMING IS WORKING AGAINST IT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
FROPA BEING OUTSIDE OF PEAK HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITS ECONUS AND SETS UP OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE WEEK
LEADING TO A WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS ARE BECOMING MORE SPOTTY, EVENTUALLY PUSHING
OFFSHORE ENTIRELY IN THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. NE WINDS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT, POSSIBLE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM INLAND AS HIGH BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF SOME SHALLOW FOG INLAND. WHILE
ALONG THE COAST RECENT RAINFALL HAS SATURATED LOWER LEVELS, THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED, PRECLUDING ANY FOG
ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES,
IFR/LIFR LOW STRATUS IS ANOTHER THING TO WATCH OUT FOR TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE OF WINDS BECOMING CALM ENOUGH FOR FOG, AND
THE LESSER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND, KEPT VIS MENTIONS AT 6SM
FOR TAFS. DID ADD A BKN005 MENTION WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS IN LINE
WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE AT THE
500-1000FT LEVEL.
OUTLOOK: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MID-WEEK WHEN
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THIS SURGE WILL BRING STRONG WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 KT ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE 0-60 NM ZONES FROM
OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT,
GRADUALLY RELAXING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE BRIEF ACROSS THE 20-60 NM ZONES ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
SEAS WILL PEAK TONIGHT AT 5-10 FT AND SUBSIDE TO 3-7 FT BY
TUESDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK): WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE TO 10-15 KT. SCAS WILL BE
NEEDED ONCE THE COASTAL WATER GALES DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH SEAS OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THESE WATERS REMAINING
6+FT THROUGH TUESDAY. TODAY'S FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION MID- WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT TO CROSS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND
OF SHOWERS, STORMS, AND SCA CONDITIONS TO OUR WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE AFTER THE MIDWEEK FRONT ALLOWING FOR
CALMING SEAS AND RELAXING WINDS WITH A DRY AND WARMING FORECAST
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-182-184-
186.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...CEB/OJC
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...CEB/OJC
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