588
FXUS62 KMHX 120540
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
140 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WAS ABLE TO DROP NEUSE/BAY RIVER SCA EARLY. REMAINING GALES OVER
OFFSHORE WATERS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. OTHER
SCA TIMINGS WILL BE ADJUSTED ONCE WAVE MODEL IS FINISHED
RUNNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONCLUDE THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTY NE WINDS CONTINUING INTO NIGHT.
2) TODAY'S FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE
TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY,
WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFFSHORE BUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH
INLAND AND 30-35 MPH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS STOUT CAA BUILDS IN. THIS WILL KNOCK TONIGHT'S LOWS
DOWN TO THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND 60S ALONG THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STACKED LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFFSHORE BRINGS
WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE DECENT DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH BUT CURRENT
TIMING IS WORKING AGAINST IT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
FROPA BEING OUTSIDE OF PEAK HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITS ECONUS AND SETS UP OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE WEEK
LEADING TO A WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE OVER ENC TERMINALS
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED IN MOST AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PGV TO OCW, BUT
NORTH OF HERE CONDITIONS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. UPSTREAM OBS
SHOW FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER,
AND RELIABLE NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME OF THIS ATTEMPTING TO
ADVECT TOWARDS THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN (MARTIN CO. AIRPORT IS
ALREADY REPORTING UNDER 3 MI). OUT OF ALL TAF TERMINALS, PGV
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES AND
MAINTAINED THIS FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. FOR ALL OTHER
TERMINALS, PROBABILITIES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS HAVE DECLINED
CONSIDERABLY AND SHIFTED THESE TAFS IN THAT DIRECTION.
MORE PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
NORTHEASTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW BECOMING DOMINATED IN THE
AFTERNOON BY SOUND AND SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY CU FIELDS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MID-WEEK WHEN
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THIS SURGE WILL BRING STRONG WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 KT ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE 0-60 NM ZONES FROM
OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT,
GRADUALLY RELAXING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE BRIEF ACROSS THE 20-60 NM ZONES ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
SEAS WILL PEAK TONIGHT AT 5-10 FT AND SUBSIDE TO 3-7 FT BY
TUESDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK): WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE TO 10-15 KT. SCAS WILL BE
NEEDED ONCE THE COASTAL WATER GALES DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH SEAS OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THESE WATERS REMAINING
6+FT THROUGH TUESDAY. TODAY'S FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION MID- WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT TO CROSS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND
OF SHOWERS, STORMS, AND SCA CONDITIONS TO OUR WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE AFTER THE MIDWEEK FRONT ALLOWING FOR
CALMING SEAS AND RELAXING WINDS WITH A DRY AND WARMING FORECAST
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
158.
DISCUSSION...CEB/OJC
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...CEB/OJC
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