464
FXUS62 KMHX 120857
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
457 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEAS SUBSIDING QUICKLY AS WINDS EASE. MARINE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
2) ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT,
WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVEREWX IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
3) WARMING AND MOSTLY DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD EARLY
AND SLIDES OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS EVENING. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SAVE FOR UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
FOLLOWING THE THE DEPARTING TROUGH ALOFT. SFC WINDS GRADUALLY
VEER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH EXITS EWARD AND THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE WORKS INLAND. MAXTS IN THE LOW 70S, MID 60S OBX, WHICH
IS 5-10DEG BELOW NORMAL. SKIES CLEAR FURTHER OVERNIGHT AND
CALMING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, MINTS A
DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 50 MAINLAND, ~60 OBX/IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STACKED LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFFSHORE BRINGS
WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE DECENT DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH BUT CURRENT
TIMING IS WORKING AGAINST IT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO
NOCTURNAL FROPA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT UNLESS EVERYTHING SLOWS
DOWN BY 12HRS, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND SOME RELATIVELY
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ALL WE'LL GET OUT OF THE FRONT WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THU AND FRI.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS ECONUS BEHIND THE MID-
WEEK FRONT AND SETS UP OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE WEEK LEADING TO A
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. MAXTS BACK TO
THE MID 80S SAT, LOW 90S INLAND SUN, WHICH WILL BE THE STORY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE TEMPS WILL BRING MINOR TO MODERATE
HEAT RISKS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE OVER ENC TERMINALS
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED IN MOST AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PGV TO OCW, BUT
NORTH OF HERE CONDITIONS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. UPSTREAM OBS
SHOW FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER,
AND RELIABLE NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME OF THIS ATTEMPTING TO
ADVECT TOWARDS THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN (MARTIN CO. AIRPORT IS
ALREADY REPORTING UNDER 3 MI). OUT OF ALL TAF TERMINALS, PGV
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES AND
MAINTAINED THIS FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. FOR ALL OTHER
TERMINALS, PROBABILITIES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS HAVE DECLINED
CONSIDERABLY AND SHIFTED THESE TAFS IN THAT DIRECTION.
MORE PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
NORTHEASTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW BECOMING DOMINATED IN THE
AFTERNOON BY SOUND AND SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY CU FIELDS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MID-WEEK WHEN
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX AS SFC HIGH APPROACHES ENC, SLIDING OFF
THE NC/VA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SEAS OVER COASTAL
WATERS GENERALLY 4-7FT@7SEC AT TIME OF WRITING. EASING NERLY
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO BECOME E AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TO
THE N WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE. SCAS REMAIN OVER COASTAL
WATERS S OF OREGON INLET FOR 6FT SEAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. SCAS
CURRENTLY TO EXPIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH HOW QUICK THE
SEAS FELL OVERNIGHT, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THEY COULD BE
CANCELED EARLIER.
OUTLOOK (TONIGHT INTO LATE WEEK): WINDS REMAIN S TO SEERLY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY 10-15KT OUTSIDE, 5-10KT INSIDE
ALLOWING SEAS TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO 3-4FT~8SEC. THE NEXT FRONT
IS SET TO CROSS REGIONAL WATERS EARLY THU, BRINGING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS, STORMS, AND SOME STRENGTHENING TO SW WINDS TO
OUR WATERS. WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER
SCA CRITERIA FOR THU'S FRONT. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT APPROACHES,
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS NEWARD TO PASS THE AREA
WELL OFFSHORE, OUTSIDE OF 100NM. THIS LOW WILL SEND SOME DECENT
SWELL TOWARD OUR COAST WHICH COULD BUILD SEAS TO 6FT+ LOCALLY
WHEN THE NERLY WINDWAVES FROM THE FRONT STACK ON TOP THIS SWELL
OUT OF THE SE AND E. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE AFTER THE
MIDWEEK FRONT/LOW, ALLOWING FOR CALMING SEAS AND RELAXING WINDS
WITH A MOSTLY DRY AND WARMING FORECAST LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. SAT SW WINDS 10-20KT, SUN BEST BOATING DAY OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS A LITTLE CALMER.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
154-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ156.
DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...CEB
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