570
FXUS62 KMHX 130539
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
139 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER FORECAST TONIGHT.
2) ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT,
WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
3) WARMING AND MOSTLY DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS AND ONGOING CAA BEHIND A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS HAS BROUGHT FAIR WEATHER TO ENC TODAY
WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH
CIRRUS IS ALSO NOTED, MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 264 AS DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOTED IN THE GULF RIDES EAST ALONG
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS FLORIDA WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM
ALLOWING FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AS WELL ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
BECOME MORE SE-S AT 5 KTS OR LESS BY WED MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT
GET INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S INLAND AND MID 50S TO LOW 60S
ALONG THE OBX.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WILL BE PAYING ATTENTION TO TWO FEATURES, ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE
FORECAST FROM EITHER AS OF THIS UPDATE. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE E AND EVENTUALLY NE'WARDS ON WED OFF THE
COAST WHILE DEEPENING. AS THIS OCCURS A FEW SHOWERS COULD
OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE OBX WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THIS
LOW PASSES BY TO THE EAST SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
HERE. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO THEN MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND WILL BE A STACKED LOW WHICH WILL BE CUTTING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE
THURS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE DECENT DYNAMICS TO WORK
WITH BUT CURRENT TIMING IS WORKING AGAINST IT WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY DUE TO NOCTURNAL FROPA. GIVEN TRENDS IN NOT ONLY AI
GUIDANCE BUT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL, HAVE NOW
KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND ONLY
KEPT THUNDER OUT ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE. BEHIND THIS FRONT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN FORECAST ON THURS AND FRI.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BEHIND THE MID-WEEK FRONT AND SETS UP OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR S'RLY FLOW TO SET UP AND FOR
INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MAXTS BACK TO THE MID 80S SAT, LOW 90S INLAND SUN,
WHICH WILL BE THE STORY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE TEMPS WILL
BRING MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISKS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE. WITH SUCH DRY LOW LEVELS
FOG AND STRATUS THREAT APPEARS LOW (ODDS LESS THAN 10%) ALTHOUGH
WITH DECOUPLING SOME VERY PATCHY MINIMAL IMPACT GROUND FOG MAY
FORM BETWEEN 10-12Z. LIGHT WINDS 5-10 KT OUT OF THE S TO SE
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH SPOTTY DIURNAL CU FIELDS. UPTICK IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE FAVORABLE FOG/STRATUS CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
THURS AM. FRONT STILL POSES A RISK FOR A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE TREND HAS BEEN SHIFTING
TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION.
OUTLOOK: PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THU INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR NE'RLY WINDS TO EASE WITH LATEST OBS SHOW
5-15 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 20-25 KTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WHILE SEAS PERSIST AROUND 3-5 FT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS WITH 4-6 FT SEAS NOTED ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS PAST 20 NM. NE'RLY WINDS WILL VEER TONIGHT TO AN E TO SE
DIRECTION TONIGHT AT ABOUT 5-10 KTS WITH WINDS MAINTAINING
THESE SPEEDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE AREAS REMAINS BETWEEN A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND AN
APPROACHING FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN AROUND 3-5 FT STARTING FROM TONIGHT ON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND):
THE NEXT FRONT IS SET TO CROSS REGIONAL WATERS EARLY THURSDAY,
BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, STORMS, AND SOME
STRENGTHENING TO SW WINDS TO OUR WATERS. WINDS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA FOR THURSDAY'S FRONT.
HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WORKS NEWARD TO PASS THE AREA WELL OFFSHORE, OUTSIDE OF
100NM. THIS LOW WILL SEND SOME DECENT SWELL TOWARD OUR COAST
WHICH COULD BUILD SEAS TO 6FT+ LOCALLY WHEN THE NERLY WINDWAVES
FROM THE FRONT STACK ON TOP THIS SWELL OUT OF THE SE AND E. HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE AFTER THE MIDWEEK FRONT/LOW, ALLOWING
FOR CALMING SEAS AND RELAXING WINDS WITH A MOSTLY DRY AND
WARMING FORECAST LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. SAT SW WINDS 10-20KT,
SUN BEST BOATING DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS A LITTLE CALMER.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...RCF
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