986
FXUS62 KMHX 131746
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
146 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER FORECAST TONIGHT.
2) ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT,
WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
3) WARMING AND MOSTLY DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA WHERE CIRRUS HAS LINGERED FOR A WHILE NOW AS
THE LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS FLORIDA. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM,
RESULTING IN GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
INLAND. WENT WELL BELOW NBM FOR LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING AS
MULTIPLE SPOTS ARE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
BECOME MORE SE-S AT 5-10 KTS TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WILL BE PAYING ATTENTION TO TWO FEATURES, ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE
FORECAST FROM EITHER AS OF THIS UPDATE. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE E AND EVENTUALLY NE'WARDS ON WED OFF THE
COAST WHILE DEEPENING. AS THIS OCCURS A FEW SHOWERS COULD
OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE OBX WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THIS
LOW PASSES BY TO THE EAST SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HERE.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO THEN MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND WILL BE A STACKED LOW WHICH WILL BE CUTTING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE
THURS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE DECENT DYNAMICS TO WORK
WITH BUT CURRENT TIMING IS WORKING AGAINST IT WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY DUE TO NOCTURNAL FROPA. GIVEN TRENDS IN NOT ONLY AI
GUIDANCE BUT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL, HAVE NOW
KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND ONLY
KEPT THUNDER OUT ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE. BEHIND THIS FRONT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN FORECAST ON THURS AND FRI.
MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW PRECIP CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE THIS DIFFICULT TO MATERIALIZE. CUT NBM
POPS TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 24% TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BEHIND THE MID-WEEK FRONT AND SETS UP OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR S'RLY FLOW TO SET UP AND FOR
INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MAXTS BACK TO THE MID 80S SAT, LOW 90S INLAND SUN,
WHICH WILL BE THE STORY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE TEMPS WILL
BRING MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISKS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A MOISTENING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER SUNSET MAY LEAD TO A SHORT WINDOW OF
BR/FG POTENTIAL. FOR NOW, THE TAFS WILL REFLECT SOME 3-5SM
POTENTIAL, BUT NOT SHOW ANYTHING LOWER AS CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
REGARDING LOW STRATUS VS BR/FG. ADDITIONALLY, AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO IMPROVED MIXING OF THE LOW-LEVELS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD TEND TO LOWER THE RISK OF REDUCED
VIS. HOWEVER, THE RISK OF SUB-VFR CIGS IN STRATUS MAY CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH, BUT THE RISK OF TSRA APPEARS LOW (5-10% CHANCE).
BEHIND THE FRONT, MODESTLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20KT ARE
EXPECTED. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AS WELL.
OUTLOOK: WE QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO A SUMMER-LIKE REGIME BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, AND MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A
DAILY SEABREEZE WITH ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE, AND A BUMP
UP IN WINDS. HOWEVER, AT THE MOMENT, THERE ISN'T ANY ONE DAY
THAT HAS A HIGHER RISK OF TSRA THAN ANY OTHER.
MARINE
HNE'RLY WINDS VEERING THIS MORNING TO AN E TO SE DIRECTION
AT ABOUT 5-10 KTS WITH WINDS MAINTAINING THESE SPEEDS THROUGH
TODAY AS THE AREAS REMAINS BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 2-5 FT
STARTING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND):
THE NEXT FRONT IS SET TO CROSS REGIONAL WATERS EARLY THURSDAY,
BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, STORMS, AND SOME
STRENGTHENING TO SW WINDS TO OUR WATERS. WINDS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA FOR THURSDAY'S FRONT.
HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WORKS NEWARD TO PASS THE AREA WELL OFFSHORE, OUTSIDE OF
100NM. THIS LOW WILL SEND SOME DECENT SWELL TOWARD OUR COAST
WHICH COULD BUILD SEAS TO 6FT+ LOCALLY WHEN THE NERLY WINDWAVES
FROM THE FRONT STACK ON TOP THIS SWELL OUT OF THE SE AND E. HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE AFTER THE MIDWEEK FRONT/LOW, ALLOWING
FOR CALMING SEAS AND RELAXING WINDS WITH A MOSTLY DRY AND
WARMING FORECAST LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. SAT SW WINDS 10-20KT,
SUN BEST BOATING DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS A LITTLE CALMER.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RCF/RJ
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