959
FXUS62 KMHX 131856
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
256 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LIMITED POPS TONIGHT GIVEN LOWER QPF.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
2) WARMING AND MOSTLY DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS A LOW END
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NO REAL CHANGES IN FORECAST THINKING AS WE CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE APPROACHING FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SKIRTING THE OBX THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH, WHICH
WILL BE ABOUT 100NM EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE LOW WILL THEN BE
WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE THURS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE DECENT DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER, A REAL LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BE NOTED, ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE ROBBING ANY MOISTURE
THIS FRONT WOULD HAVE TO WORK WITH. ON TOP OF THAT, WITH THE
FRONTS CURRENT TIMING, THERE WILL BE LIMITED INSTABILITY SO NOT
EXPECTING A THUNDER THREAT ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND ONLY A
ISOLATED THREAT ALONG OUR COASTAL WATERS.
QPF AND POP VALUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW OVERALL GIVEN LATEST HI-
RES AND AI GUIDANCE. KEPT SCHC POPS ACROSS INLAND ZONES AND
SCHC TO LOW END CHANCE POP'S ALONG THE OBX THOUGH THIS MAY BE
AGGRESSIVE AS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN PRECIP
FREE. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS HANDLED WITH POPS IN THE 15% RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW END CHANCE WE DO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. QPF VALUES THEMSELVES GENERALLY
REMAIN A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF ENC
MEANING APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAR AN FEW
IN BETWEEN. BEHIND THIS FRONT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
THEN FORECAST ON THURS AND FRI. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE THIS
DIFFICULT TO MATERIALIZE. CUT NBM POPS TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 24%
TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BEHIND THE MID-WEEK FRONT AND SETS UP OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR S'RLY FLOW TO SET UP AND FOR INCREASING LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT, A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAXTS BACK TO THE MID 80S SAT, UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
INLAND SUN, MON, AND TUE WHICH WILL BE THE STORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WHILE WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE CLOSE. THESE TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO BRING MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISKS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A MOISTENING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER SUNSET MAY LEAD TO A SHORT WINDOW OF
BR/FG POTENTIAL. FOR NOW, THE TAFS WILL REFLECT SOME 3-5SM
POTENTIAL, BUT NOT SHOW ANYTHING LOWER AS CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
REGARDING LOW STRATUS VS BR/FG. ADDITIONALLY, AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO IMPROVED MIXING OF THE LOW-LEVELS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD TEND TO LOWER THE RISK OF REDUCED
VIS. HOWEVER, THE RISK OF SUB-VFR CIGS IN STRATUS MAY CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SCT SHRA MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH, BUT THE RISK OF TSRA APPEARS LOW (5-10% CHANCE).
BEHIND THE FRONT, MODESTLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20KT ARE
EXPECTED. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AS WELL.
OUTLOOK: WE QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO A SUMMER-LIKE REGIME BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, AND MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A
DAILY SEABREEZE WITH ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE, AND A BUMP
UP IN WINDS. HOWEVER, AT THE MOMENT, THERE ISN'T ANY ONE DAY
THAT HAS A HIGHER RISK OF TSRA THAN ANY OTHER.
MARINE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE
CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS OUR WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF
TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO TRACK NE'WARDS. THIS LOW WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WATERS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. SEAS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 3-5 FT ALONG THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS AND 4-6 FT SEAS NOTED OUT PAST 20 NM. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER OUT TO SEA AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACKS NE'WARDS ABOUT 100NM EAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS
BECOME S TO SW'RLY TONIGHT AT 5-10 KTS WITH 3-5 FT SEAS NEAR
SHORE AND HIGHER SEAS BEYOND 20 NM. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES
ACROSS OUR WATERS THURS MORNING BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS, STORMS AND SOME STRENGTHENING NW WINDS TO OUR WATERS.
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. WINDS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA FOR THURSDAY'S
FRONT. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS NE'WARD AWAY FROM THE AREA SENDING SOME
DECENT SWELL TOWARD OUR COAST. AS OF THIS WRITING THERE LOOKS TO
BE A LOW END CHANCE TO SEE 6+ FT SEAS, MAINLY FROM 10+ NM OUT
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL WATERS STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE
TYPICALLY THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SCAS, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN SEAS, ELECTED TO PUNT THIS DECISION TO THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND):
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE AFTER THE MIDWEEK FRONT/LOW,
ALLOWING FOR CALMING SEAS AND RELAXING WINDS WITH A MOSTLY DRY
AND WARMING FORECAST LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. SAT SW WINDS
10-20KT, SUN BEST BOATING DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS A LITTLE
CALMER.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RCF
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