591
FXUS62 KMHX 141728
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
128 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED SCA FOR THE CENTRAL NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING,
WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
2) WARMING AND MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE,
WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE PIEDMONT. LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NE TODAY, WHILE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD AND THROUGH
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISO
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF STREAM EARLY THIS MORNING.
AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS MORNING ISO/SCT
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP INLAND ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ISOLATED TO
SCT SHOWERS, POTENTIALLY TSTMS, THREAT WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17. THOUGH DRY
AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL.
QPF VALUES THEMSELVES GENERALLY REMAIN A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF ENC MEANING APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAR AN FEW IN BETWEEN. AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE BEACHES
AND LOW/UPPER 70S INLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND SETS UP OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR S'RLY FLOW TO SET UP AND FOR INCREASING LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA. AS A RESULT, A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAXTS BACK
TO THE MID 80S SAT, UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND SUN INTO MID
NEXT WEEK. WHILE WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW RECORD HIGH TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE CLOSE. THESE
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BRING MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISKS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE
COLD FRONT HAS RECENTLY PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH N-NW WINDS AT 5-10 KTS
AND GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS ACROSS INLAND ENC WITH HIGHER GUSTS NOTED
ALONG THE OBX. HOWEVER, THE FRONT ALOFT STILL HAS YET TO MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH AND IS SQUEEZING OUT WHATEVER LEFTOVER MOISTURE
THERE IS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CU
RANGING FROM 4-5 KFT.
THIS HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
ACROSS LAND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND THE OBX
NORTH OF HATTERAS. CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO AS
WELL, BUT THINK THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS FAIRLY
LOW. THIS PRECIP THREAT QUICKLY ENDS BETWEEN 6-8PM. VERY BRIEF
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
THIS AREA, BUT ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED AND VERY SHORT
LIVED. MAINLY CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW, ALTHOUGH
WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR SOME RENEWED, ALBEIT MORE SPOTTY,
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EAST OF A OCW-EWN-NJM LINE AFTER 06Z FRI
AND COULD BRING SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. REGARDLESS
IF FOG DEVELOPS OR NOT, BY DAYBREAK ON FRI EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AND STEADY NW WINDS TO RETURN TO ENC.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY): WE QUICKLY TRANSITION
BACK TO A SUMMER-LIKE REGIME THIS WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A DAILY
SEABREEZE, HOWEVER BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE QUITE STRONG, AND
THUS ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IS VERY LOW INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS 2-5 FT. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NE TODAY, WHILE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS
LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME N-NW 10-20 KT BEHIND THE
FRONT. MODERATE N-NW WINDS 10-15 KT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ISSUED
SCA FOR THE CENTRAL NEARSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS LIKELY BUILDING
TO 4-6 FT EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF
STREAM EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL GRAD WANE
THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING MORE ISOLATED LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE,
ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING WINDS AND SEAS, ALONG WITH A MOSTLY DRY
AND WARMING FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS GRAD BECOMING S-SW
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THEN RETURNS WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE SSW WINDS IN THE MORNINGS, INCREASING TO 10-20
KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONGER THERMAL GRADIENT
AND SEA/SOUND BREEZES. SEAS GENERALLY REMAINING 2-4 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...CQD
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...CQD
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