645
FXUS62 KMHX 141939
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
339 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST, SLIGHTLY SLOWED WARMING TREND WITH
A LITTLE BIT COOLER TEMPS CURRENTLY FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND
FROM PREVIOUS ITERATIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
SHOWERS LINGER OVER NEERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
2) WARMING AND MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD FRONT PUSHED OFFSHORE EARLIER TODAY WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST. TROUGH AXIS ALOFT
CROSSES THE COAST TONIGHT, KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
FORECAST OVER NEERN PORTIONS OF THE FA UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NWERLY THROUGH THE COLUMN. LIGHT
BREEZE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS. MINTS
HAVE COME UP A FEW DEGREES, MOSTLY LOW 50S, BUT MID TO UPPER 40S
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER INLAND AREAS IN SHELTERED
SPOTS THAT MAY DECOUPLE. MAXTS FRI WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY DESPITE THE SUNNIER SKIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND SETS UP OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR S'RLY FLOW TO SET UP AND FOR
INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA. AS A
RESULT, A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAXTS BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 80S SAT, UPPER 80S INLAND
SUN, AND 90S TO START NEXT WORK-WEEK. WHILE WE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WE WILL BE CLOSE. THESE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BRING MINOR
TO MODERATE HEAT RISKS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE
COLD FRONT HAS RECENTLY PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH N-NW WINDS AT 5-10 KTS
AND GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS ACROSS INLAND ENC WITH HIGHER GUSTS NOTED
ALONG THE OBX. HOWEVER, THE FRONT ALOFT STILL HAS YET TO MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH AND IS SQUEEZING OUT WHATEVER LEFTOVER MOISTURE
THERE IS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CU
RANGING FROM 4-5 KFT.
THIS HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
ACROSS LAND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND THE OBX
NORTH OF HATTERAS. CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO AS
WELL, BUT THINK THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS FAIRLY
LOW. THIS PRECIP THREAT QUICKLY ENDS BETWEEN 6-8PM. VERY BRIEF
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
THIS AREA, BUT ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED AND VERY SHORT
LIVED. MAINLY CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW, ALTHOUGH
WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR SOME RENEWED, ALBEIT MORE SPOTTY,
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EAST OF A OCW-EWN-NJM LINE AFTER 06Z FRI
AND COULD BRING SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. REGARDLESS
IF FOG DEVELOPS OR NOT, BY DAYBREAK ON FRI EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AND STEADY NW WINDS TO RETURN TO ENC.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY): WE QUICKLY TRANSITION
BACK TO A SUMMER-LIKE REGIME THIS WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A DAILY
SEABREEZE, HOWEVER BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE QUITE STRONG, AND
THUS ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IS VERY LOW INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW NEERLY WINDS, 15-20KT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER, BUT
REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA, GUSTS. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH NE TONIGHT. ONCE THE INITIAL POST-FRONTAL SURGE
PASSES TONIGHT, WINDS LESSEN SOME BECOMING NWERLY 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. SCA FOR
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS REMAINS AS PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED WITH SEAS
LIKELY BUILDING TO 4-6 FT EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FIRST PART
OF TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER WATERS N
OF LOOKOUT THIS EVENING AS TROUGH AXIS ALOFT PIVOTS OFF THE
COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO END ~2000EDT.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE,
ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING WINDS AND SEAS, ALONG WITH A MOSTLY DRY
AND WARMING FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS GRAD BECOMING S-SW
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WHEN SFC HIGH PUSHES OFF ENC COAST. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THEN RETURNS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SSW WINDS
IN THE MORNINGS, INCREASING TO 10-20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH STRONGER THERMAL GRADIENT AND SEA/SOUND BREEZES.
SEAS GENERALLY REMAINING 2-4 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...CQD/CEB
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