660
FXUS62 KMHX 150627
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
227 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK,
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND SETS UP OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR S'RLY FLOW TO SET UP AND FOR
INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA. AS A
RESULT, A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAXTS IN THE 70S TODAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S SAT, UPPER 80S INLAND SUN, AND 90S TO START NEXT WORK-WEEK.
WHILE WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL BE CLOSE. THESE TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BRING MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE NEXT WEEK. STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD (TIMING AND
MOISTURE) THIS FAR OUT, BUT THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S
COLD FRONT. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WITH PEAK WINDS NEAR 20 KT AT TIMES. PRIMARILY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AIRMASS IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT FOG/LOW STRATUS OVER TAF
TERMINALS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR SOME RENEWED, ALBEIT
MORE SPOTTY, FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EAST OF A OCW-EWN-NJM LINE
THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH MORE PATCHY
THAN LAST NIGHT.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY): WE QUICKLY TRANSITION
BACK TO A SUMMER-LIKE REGIME THIS WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A DAILY
SEABREEZE, HOWEVER BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE QUITE STRONG,
AND THUS ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IS VERY LOW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW MODERATE N-NNW SURGE 10-20 KT ONGOING EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. DROPPED SCA FOR THE CENTRAL
WATERS BASED ON OBS. NW WINDS WILL GRAD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS, MAINLY 10-15 KT
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT. WINDS WILL GRAD BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING SSW 5-15 KT.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
OFFSHORE, ALLOWING FOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN ALONG WITH A
MOSTLY DRY AND WARMING FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY S-SW
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SSW WINDS IN THE MORNINGS, INCREASING TO 10-20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONGER THERMAL GRADIENT AND
SEA/SOUND BREEZES. SEAS GENERALLY REMAINING 2-4 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...CQD
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