194
FXUS62 KMHX 151940
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
340 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK,
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING OFFSHORE
TO SET UP OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL CRASH AFTER SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS, BUT ONCE THE HIGH IS COMPLETELY OFFSHORE, LIGHT SERLY
BREEZE SHOULD CUT DOWN ON COOLING EFFECTS. WITH THAT SAID, STILL
ROOM TO COME DOWN FOR THE FORECAST MINTS SHOULD AREAS STAY
DECOUPLED LONGER CONSIDERING THE AFTERNOON TDS OF UPPER 30S/LOW
40S AND ONLY THIN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT NOT HAVING MUCH DAMPENING EFFECT ON THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING POSSIBILITY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LOW
50S INLAND, UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BEACHES. ONCE THE HIGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE SAT MORNING, S'RLY FLOW SETS UP AND ALLOWS
FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA. AS
A RESULT, A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAXTS SAT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAS COOLED BY THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE, LOW 80S INLAND, UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND
SUN, AND 90S TO START NEXT WORK- WEEK. WHILE WE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WE WILL BE CLOSE. THESE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BRING MINOR
TO MODERATE HEAT RISKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE NEXT WEEK. SCHC OF PRECIP WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE POSSIBLY BEING ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME
SEABREEZE ACTIVITY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD IN REGARD
TO TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR FROPA THIS FAR OUT, BUT
THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP. FRONT
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CROSS THU.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SLOWLY MOISTENING RETURN FLOW
TONIGHT, BR/FG APPEARS UNLIKELY. ON SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD GET A BUMP UP WITH THE SEABREEZE AS IT DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INLAND.
OUTLOOK: CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN IN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF LOW CIGS/STRATUS OVER THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, A
DAILY SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS. THE
SEABREEZE IS LIKELY TO BE TSRA-FREE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
THE CHANCE ISN'T ZERO. THE NEXT APPRECIABLE TSRA RISK LOOKS TO
BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
NW WINDS WILL GRAD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS, MAINLY 10-15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
2-4 FT. WINDS WILL GRAD BACK OVERNIGHT BECOMING SSW 5-15 KT.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
OFFSHORE, ALLOWING FOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN ALONG WITH A
MOSTLY DRY AND WARMING FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY S-SW
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SSW WINDS IN THE MORNINGS, INCREASING TO 10-20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONGER THERMAL GRADIENT AND
SEA/SOUND BREEZES. SEAS GENERALLY REMAINING 2-4 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...CQD/CEB
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