203
FXUS62 KMHX 160407
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1207 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED MIN T'S TONIGHT DUE TO VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK,
WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING OFFSHORE
TO SET UP OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL CRASH AFTER SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS, BUT ONCE THE HIGH IS COMPLETELY OFFSHORE, LIGHT SERLY
BREEZE SHOULD PREVENT LOWS IN THE 40S, BUT STILL COOL WITH LOW
50S FOR MOST. WITH THAT SAID, STILL ROOM TO COME DOWN FOR THE
FORECAST MINTS SHOULD AREAS STAY DECOUPLED LONGER CONSIDERING
THE AFTERNOON TDS OF UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND ONLY THIN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD DURING THE OVERNIGHT NOT HAVING MUCH
DAMPENING EFFECT ON THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POSSIBILITY. CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR LOW 50S INLAND, UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
BEACHES. ONCE THE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE SAT MORNING,
S'RLY FLOW SETS UP AND ALLOWS FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA. AS A RESULT, A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND IS FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAXTS SAT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AREAS COOLED BY THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE, LOW
80S INLAND, UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND SUN, AND 90S TO START
NEXT WORK- WEEK. WHILE WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW RECORD HIGH
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL BE CLOSE.
THESE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BRING MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE NEXT WEEK. SCHC OF PRECIP WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE POSSIBLY BEING ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME
SEABREEZE ACTIVITY. STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD IN REGARD
TO TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR FROPA THIS FAR OUT, BUT
THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP. FRONT
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CROSS THU.
AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DEWPOINTS ARE
HIGHER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT, SO LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES BRING A LOW END RISK OF SOME SHALLOW
DITCH/GROUND FOG AT TERMINALS AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WITH THE 6Z TAF ISSUANCE, I WILL HAVE TEMPO MVFR
GROUPS FOR OAJ AND EWN 8-12Z, WITH TEMPO 6SM FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD FURTHER INLAND AT ISO, PGV. ON SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD GET A BUMP UP WITH THE SEABREEZE AS IT DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INLAND WITH GUSTS AOA 15 KT OR SO BY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN IN
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO TEMPO PERIODS OF LOW
CIGS/STRATUS OVER THE WEEKEND LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, A DAILY SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS. WITH DRY HIGH PRES IN PLACE, NO
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH CHANCES BELOW 10%. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS IS THURSDAY.
MARINE
NW WINDS WILL GRAD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS, MAINLY 10-15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO
2-4 FT. WINDS WILL GRAD BACK OVERNIGHT BECOMING SSW 5-15 KT.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
OFFSHORE, ALLOWING FOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN ALONG WITH A
MOSTLY DRY AND WARMING FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY S-SW
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SSW WINDS IN THE MORNINGS, INCREASING TO 10-20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONGER THERMAL GRADIENT AND
SEA/SOUND BREEZES. SEAS GENERALLY REMAINING 2-4 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD/TL/CEB
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...CQD/CEB
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