429
FXUS62 KMHX 231902
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
302 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SLOW-MOVING FRONT TO IMPACT TEMPS, CLOUDS, AND FOG POTENTIAL
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
2) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A NOTABLE LATE-SEASON COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP
HAS LED TO A SLOWED NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A WARM FRONT
THROUGH ENC THUS FAR TODAY. AS OF 2PM, THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM
KENANSVILLE TO WASHINGTON. NORTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPS WERE
HOLDING IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S, WHILE TO THE SOUTH IT WAS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
FRONT WILL GET, AND IT'S POSSIBLE IT WILL STALL OVER, OR NEAR,
THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER SUNSET. NORTH OF WHERE IT STALLS,
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND AN INCREASED RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDLESS OF WHERE IT STALLS TONIGHT, THE
CONSENSUS IS THAT IT WILL LIFT FULLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE AIRMASS WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS CONSISTENTLY AT, OR ABOVE,
1.75", AND MODERATE INSTABILITY (500-1500J/KG MLCAPE).
MEANWHILE, EACH DAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VARIOUS SOURCES OF LOW-
LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING, WITH DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS THAT
ARE NOT ALWAYS MODELED WELL. THE THEME HERE IS THAT EACH DAY
WILL LIKELY CARRY A HIGHER-THAN-CLIMO RISK OF CONVECTION, BUT NO
ONE DAY LOOKS LIKE A COMPLETE WASHOUT. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
IMPORTANT ITEMS WORTH NOTING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, EACH
HIGHLIGHTED BELOW.
1) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BUT IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE SOME NEXT WEEK
AS WE GET A SUBTLE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF STRONGER MID-UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE MONDAY-
THURSDAY, AND MACHINE LEARNING AND ANALOG GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SHOW A MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SIGNAL. ADDITIONALLY,
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, AN MCV LIFTING OUT OF GEORGIA IS
FORECAST TO SUPPORT AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE LLJ, AND IN TANDEM
WITH THE VARIOUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN PLACE, MAY PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL TURNING FOR A BRIEF LANDSPOUT/TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THIS RISK MAY BE THE HIGHEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
WHEN 3CAPE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE SEABREEZE OR ANY OTHER SURFACE
BOUNDARY.
2) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED
WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE
AND LOW- MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FLOW TO PREVENT
TRAINING OR SLOWER-MOVING CONVECTION, BUT AT LEAST SOME MINOR
HYDRO IMPACTS MAY DEVELOP WHERE RAINFALL RATES ARE MAXIMIZED,
ESPECIALLY FOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. OF NOTE, SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3"+ MAY OCCUR WHERE THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION MATERIALIZES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS FROM EARLIER HAVE MOSTLY MIXED OUT
AS OF THIS WRITING, AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, TEMPORARY DROPS IN VIS/CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA AND TSRA, INCLUDING A RISK OF IFR
CONDITIONS. THE SHRA AND TSRA RISK LOOKS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO
SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE REGARDING THE LOCATION
AND TIMING. IN GENERAL, THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CLUSTERING
OF GUIDANCE WITH A FOCUS ON 06Z- 10Z TONIGHT AND AGAIN DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, THE OTHER AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
PROGRESSION OF A SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT. THE FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM KDPL TO KOCW, AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF
KISO AND KPGV BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THE FRONT MAY CONTINUE NORTH
OVERNIGHT OR IT MAY STALL. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND SUGGESTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR IT TO STALL,
WHICH WOULD THEN LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR CIGS TONIGHT
NORTH OF WHERE IT STALLS. CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IS
THE HIGHEST AT KISO AND KPGV, WITH A LOWER RISK TO THE SOUTH.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE FRONT STALLS, IT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF
ALL TAF SITES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA
AND TSRA. A NIGHTLY RISK OF LOW CIGS AND VIS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE
AS WELL.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT FULLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THEN, NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR WATERS NORTH OF THE FRONT, WHICH SHOULD PRIMARILY BE NORTH
OF OREGON INLET. SOME PATCHY MARINE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES NORTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, WITH IMPROVED
VISIBILITIES. FOR INLAND RIVERS AND SOUNDS, THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, A PERSISTENT AND LONGER FETCH OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS LED TO BUILDING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL, WITH
SEAS OF 4- 6FT CURRENTLY BEING MEASURED OFF THE OBX. THIS
INCREASED SWELL OF 9- 10S IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY,
THEN GRADUALLY START TO LAY DOWN ON MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OUTLOOK: A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OUT THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITHIN THIS REGIME, THERE SHOULD BE A DAILY
BUILDING OF WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE INLAND RIVERS AND SOUNDS THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. OCCASIONAL 25KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THOSE TIMES.
THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASED RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT NO ALL- DAY WASHOUTS ARE EXPECTED.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
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