329
FXUS62 KMHX 240805
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
405 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SLOW-MOVING FRONT TO IMPACT TEMPS, CLOUDS, AND FOG POTENTIAL
THIS MORNING.
2) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A NOTABLE LATE-SEASON COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP
CONTINUES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH THE WEDGE FRONT REMAINING
STALLED FROM APPROXIMATELY THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM KENANSVILLE
TO EDENTON. LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT TO THE WEST OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BUT SO FAR VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINING AOA 2
MILES, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD
DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT FULLY NORTH OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE AIRMASS WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS CONSISTENTLY AT, OR ABOVE,
1.75", AND MODERATE INSTABILITY (500-1500J/KG MLCAPE).
MEANWHILE, EACH DAY LOOKS TO FEATURE VARIOUS SOURCES OF LOW-
LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING, WITH DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS THAT
ARE NOT ALWAYS MODELED WELL. THE THEME HERE IS THAT EACH DAY
WILL LIKELY CARRY A HIGHER-THAN-CLIMO RISK OF CONVECTION, BUT NO
ONE DAY LOOKS LIKE A COMPLETE WASHOUT. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
IMPORTANT ITEMS WORTH NOTING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, EACH
HIGHLIGHTED BELOW.
1) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BUT IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE SOME NEXT WEEK
AS WE GET A SUBTLE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF STRONGER MID-UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE MONDAY-
THURSDAY, AND MACHINE LEARNING AND ANALOG GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SHOW A MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SIGNAL. ADDITIONALLY,
AN MCV LIFTING OUT OF GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE LLJ TODAY, AND IN TANDEM WITH THE VARIOUS
SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN PLACE, MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
TURNING FOR A BRIEF LANDSPOUT/TORNADO POTENTIAL. THIS RISK MAY
BE THE HIGHEST DURING THE DAY WHEN CAPE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE OR ANY OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY.
2) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED
WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE
AND LOW- MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FLOW TO PREVENT
TRAINING OR SLOWER-MOVING CONVECTION, BUT AT LEAST SOME MINOR
HYDRO IMPACTS MAY DEVELOP WHERE RAINFALL RATES ARE MAXIMIZED,
ESPECIALLY FOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. OF NOTE, SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3"+ MAY OCCUR WHERE THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION MATERIALIZES.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEDGE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS WESTERN RTES EARLY THIS
MORNING, APPROXIMATELY A LINE FROM EDENTON TO WALLACE. LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF THIS LINE EARLY
THIS MORNING BRINGING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. TO THE EAST,
CONDITIONS ARE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVALENT, OCCASIONALLY
LIFTING TO VFR. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
BY LATE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH PRED VFR RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING A CONCERN AGAIN TODAY ESP AS
THE DAY GOES ON A SFC HEATING BUILDS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE REGARDING THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THESE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONTINUE TO HANDLE TSRA THREAT WITH A
PROB30 FCST.
OUTLOOK (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AND TSRA. A NIGHTLY RISK OF LOW CIGS
AND VIS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS WELL. DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO
ARRIVE BY THURSDAY.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY ONCE THE FRONT FULLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
SOME PATCHY MARINE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND UNTIL THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS WELL. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CONTINUED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY, WHICH
MAY BRING PERIODS OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
MEANWHILE, A PERSISTENT AND LONGER FETCH OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS LED TO BUILDING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL, WITH
SEAS OF 4-6FT CURRENTLY BEING MEASURED OFF THE OBX. THIS
INCREASED SWELL OF 9-10S IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TODAY,
THEN GRADUALLY START TO LAY DOWN ON TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING/NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OUTLOOK: A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OUT THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITHIN THIS REGIME, THERE SHOULD BE A DAILY
BUILDING OF WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE INLAND RIVERS AND SOUNDS THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING THERMAL
GRADIENT. OCCASIONAL 25KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THOSE TIMES.
THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT NO ALL-DAY WASHOUTS ARE EXPECTED.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...RM/SK
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...RM/SK
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