909
FXUS62 KMHX 242351
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
751 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. KEPT 20-40%
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
ENC COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ALONG IT. SOMEWHAT SLOWER
STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, PLUS PWATS NEAR 2" AND A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK OF
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1-2"/HR. WHERE THESE HIGHER
RATES OCCUR, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE, A BROAD AREA OF
INCREASE LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE
AREA, ALLOWING PERIODS OF CONVECTION EVEN AWAY FROM THE WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN ABOVE- CLIMO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TODAY'S FRONT IS FORECAST TO THEN LIFT NORTH TO AROUND THE
NC/VA BORDER BY MONDAY, AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. GUIDANCE DIFFERS SOME ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL.
WHEREVER IT STALLS, IT SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AWAY FROM THE FRONT, CONVECTION
SHOULD MOSTLY BE SEABREEZE-DRIVEN. CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE EACH DAY IS LOWER BECAUSE
OF THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT EACH
DAY. THE MEAN STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, PLUS MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND 2" PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK OF
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. IF THE FRONT
STALLS ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER, THEN THE GREATEST RISK OF
FLOODING WOULD BE FOCUSED THERE AS WELL. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
ON THE POTENTIAL PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT EACH DAY AND WHERE THE
GREATEST RISK OF CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE.
ON THURSDAY, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO GET SHOVED BACK SOUTH AS
A COLD FRONT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THIS MAY OFFER AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER, BUT PERHAPS WITH A FOCUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ENC AS OPPOSED TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
A MODEST INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A BUMP UP IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO 20- 30KT. THIS SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION EACH DAY DURING THAT TIME. THIS COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000J/KG MLCAPE MAY SUPPORT A
MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON
THURSDAY, SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ANALOG,
DETERMINISTIC, AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE ALL HINT AT THIS
POTENTIAL AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FRONT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD
DIP BACK SOUTH TO NEAR KPGV TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH
AGAIN ON MONDAY. THROUGH THIS EVENING, OCNL SHOWERS WILL PREVIAL
AND THUS VCSH REMAINS. THUNDER THREAT QUICKLY WANING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING AND REMOVED ANY MENTION THROUGH MON AM. AFTER 18Z,
PROB30 FOR THUNDER IN FCST WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTLOOK (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): A FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STALL NEAR, OR JUST NORTH, OF ENC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF TSRA FOCUSED ALONG IT. THUS A
DAILY RISK OF SEABREEZE TSRA APPEARS LIKELY, ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WHERE SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR, AS WELL AS EACH NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING (DUE TO SCT/BKN LOW STRATUS LAYERS).
MARINE
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT FULLY NORTH OF ALL ENC WATERS
BY THIS EVENING, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-20KT
PREVAILING IN ITS WAKE. DESPITE THE FRONT BEING TO THE NORTH OF
MOST WATERS, A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO A
BROAD AREA OF LIFT, DEEP MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. BY
TONIGHT, THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE, IT WON'T
TAKE MUCH TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING AT ANY POINT IN THE NIGHT.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THANKS TO THE RECENT LONG-PERIOD
NORTHEASTERLY FETCH FROM THE NORTHERN INTO WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO LAY DOWN, BUT MAY NOT FULLY LAY DOWN BELOW
6 FT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM
OREGON INLET NORTH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS THERE ARE DOWN TO
4-5 FT. SOUTH OF THERE, SEAS OF 5-6 FT ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED,
AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL NEARSHORE WATERS
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: FOR THOSE WITH BOATING PLANS FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME IS EXPECTED, WITH A
DAILY BUILDING OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20KT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. IN
GENERAL, THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE A BIT LOWER
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THE ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION IS THE INLAND
RIVERS AND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND VICINITY WHERE THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS HIGHER COMPARED TO THE COASTAL WATERS,
THANKS TO THE SEABREEZE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRONT TO BE
NEARBY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-203>205.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...RM
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