411
FXUS62 KMHX 252305
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY WED AND THU. DRIER TRENDS CONTINUE FOR
FRIDAY.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) DRIER AND COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI, BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCT STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS DOWN TOWARDS THE CRYSTAL COAST. ENC REMAINS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH FRONT STALLED TO THE
NORTH/WEST AS DEEP MOIST SSW FLOW CONTINUES. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS SOME ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL. WHEREVER IT STALLS,
IT SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AWAY FROM THE FRONT, CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY BE
SEABREEZE-DRIVEN...BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST EARLY THEN
SHIFTING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE EACH DAY IS LOWER BECAUSE
OF THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT EACH
DAY. THE MEAN STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, PLUS MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND 2" PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK OF
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. IF THE FRONT
STALLS ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER, THEN THE GREATEST RISK OF
FLOODING WOULD BE FOCUSED THERE AS WELL. ON THURSDAY, THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK TOWARD THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS MAY OFFER AT LEAST
ONE MORE DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER, BUT PERHAPS WITH A FOCUS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ENC AS OPPOSED TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
A MODEST INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A BUMP UP IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 20-
30KT. THIS SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION EACH DAY DURING THAT TIME. THIS COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000J/KG MLCAPE MAY SUPPORT A
MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON
THURSDAY, SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ANALOG,
DETERMINISTIC, AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO HINT
AT THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL. MAIN CONCERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
BE THE POTENTIALLY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FRI AS N-E FLOW DEVELOPS. THE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN
TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY REMAINING
STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH, STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
THIS WILL EVOLVE. PROXIMITY OF FRONT AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH, MAY KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHEST POPS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN
END THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE. EXPECT ANY
ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ENC
WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS NOTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC INITIALLY. HOWEVER, LOW STRATUS IS
FORECAST TO REDEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR FURTHER INLAND TAF
SITES SO HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BY ABOUT 2-4Z AND
THEN IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 6-8Z TONIGHT ACROSS
ISO/PGV AND ADJACENT AREAS AND MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING NEAR
THE OAJ/EWN TAF SITES AFTER 06Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUD COVER TO HANG
AROUND THESE TERMINALS AND ADJACENT AREAS INTO TUE MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 13-15Z TUE MORNING. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE MORNING AND TUE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): A FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STALL JUST NORTH OF ENC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH THE
GREATEST RISK OF TSRA FOCUSED ALONG IT. THUS A DAILY RISK OF
SEABREEZE TSRA APPEARS LIKELY, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND
SHIFT. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WHERE SHRA
AND TSRA OCCUR, AS WELL AS EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING (DUE TO
SCT/BKN LOW STRATUS LAYERS).
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW SSW WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED IN COMBO OF WINDSWELL AND LONGER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. MODERATE SSW WINDS 10-20 KT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING, THOUGH LOOKS TOO MARGINAL FOR SCA AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: FOR THOSE WITH BOATING PLANS FROM THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME IS EXPECTED, WITH A DAILY
BUILDING OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20KT EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE STRENGTHENING THERMAL GRADIENT. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. IN GENERAL, THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE A BIT LOWER COMPARED TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE
WATERS. THE ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION IS THE INLAND RIVERS AND THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND VICINITY WHERE THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
HIGHER COMPARED TO THE COASTAL WATERS, THANKS TO THE SEABREEZE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRONT TO BE NEARBY. STRONGER WINDS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT WITH HIGHER PROB FOR SCA CONDITIONS. A FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE WATERS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, WITH N-E FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-203>205.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD/SK
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...CQD/SK
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