582
FXUS62 KMHX 261805
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED SCA FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND
BEGINNING WED AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) DRIER AND COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI, POTENTIALLY BECOMING
MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ENC REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR, WITH FRONT STALLED TO THE NORTH/WEST AND DEEP MOIST SSW
FLOW CONTINUING. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AWAY FROM THE FRONT, CONVECTION
SHOULD MOSTLY BE SEABREEZE-DRIVEN...BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST
EARLY THEN SHIFTING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MEAN STORM
MOTION PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, PLUS MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 2"
PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK OF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING. A MODEST INCREASE IN MID-UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A BUMP UP
IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 20- 30KT. THIS SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE THREAT TO A MINIMUM. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WED AFTERNOON
AND EVE. ON THURSDAY, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS MAY OFFER AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER, BUT PERHAPS WITH A FOCUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ENC AS OPPOSED TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THU AND THU NIGHT, BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FRI AS N-E FLOW DEVELOPS. THE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN
TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY REMAINING
STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFFSHORE, BUT STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE.
PROXIMITY OF FRONT AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH, MAY
KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHEST POPS LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS ONGOING. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WHICH COULD BRING TEMPO SUB-VFR. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT.
WILL TREND TOWARDS PERSISTENCE WITH BEST CHANCES FOR IFR AT PGV
AND ISO. SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
EVE.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR. DRIER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR MAY RETURN SAT AND SUN WITH SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED IN COMBO OF WINDSWELL AND LONGER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. MODERATE SSW WINDS 10-20 KT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
EVENING, THOUGH LOOKS TOO MARGINAL FOR SCA AT THIS TIME.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WED INTO EARLY THU AS A FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KT WED AFTERNOON
WITH SEAS THEN BUILDING TO 4-7 FT. ISSUED SCA FOR THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND.
OUTLOOK: UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES PERSISTING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT, WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE N-E FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND IT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/SK
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...CQD/SK
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