682
FXUS62 KMHX 271927
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
327 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THURSDAY.
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT SAT/SAT NIGHT, AS WELL AS SUN INTO MON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
2) DRIER AND COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI, THEN ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS
SATURDAY.
3) ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
NEXT ROUND OF DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE SEA BREEZE IS WORKING ITS WAY INLAND AS A
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND 2" PWATS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 35 KT
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THAT HAS BEEN STALLED IN VA
WILL START TO DROP SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY AND COLD POOLS FROM
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS
THAT WILL SPARK CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. MODEST INSTABILITY (SBCAPE 1200 J/KG) AND BULK SHEAR
(25-30 KT) WILL PRESENT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. PWATS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2", AND WITH A MEAN STORM MOTION ROUGHLY PARALLEL
TO THE SOUTHBOUND FRONT, ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE CAMS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SOLUTION THAT SHOWS GREATER COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION THAT COULD LAST INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE NAM3K IS THE MOST BULLISH OF
THE CAMS, BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT CONVECTION WILL
START ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES SOUTH. BY TOMORROW MORNING,
THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
OVER THE WATER.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE FORCING
MECHANISMS AT PLAY (FRONT MOVING SOUTH AND SEA/RIVER/SOUND
BREEZES), AND WHERE THESE INTERACT WILL PRESENT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN TODAY WITH 30+ KT OF BULK SHEAR, STRONG INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE), AND 2" PWATS. STRONG TO MODERATELY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, INTENSE RAINFALL RATES, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT, LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY
AS NE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON SATURDAY AND BRING A 25-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA (HIGHEST ALONG THE
COAST).
KEY MESSAGE 3...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS (GREATEST CHANCES FOR EWN
AND OAJ). ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AGAIN, THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE SCATTERED, BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHEREVER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES.
TOMORROW, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE BETTER SUITED FOR SOME STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND INTERACTS
WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR MAY
RETURN SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. VFR RETURNS SUNDAY BEHIND
FROPA.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH 2-5 FT SEAS. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A THERMAL TROUGH
STRENGTHENS INLAND IN TANDEM WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTH. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
PAMLICO SOUND. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS DUE TO THE LOCALIZED FUNNELING FROM THE
SSW WINDS THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW 25 KT BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, THOUGH SEAS
WILL REMAIN AT 6 FT THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING. SCAS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
PERSISTING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THU INTO
THU NIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING N TO NE BEHIND THE FROPA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS ENC AND REMAINING THROUGH LATE FRI. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SEAS
GENERALLY 2-4 FT. WINDS TURN BACK AROUND TO THE S ON SAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SAT NIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING N TO NE AGAIN BY EARLY
SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ROUND OF NERLY FLOW ON
SUNDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...OJC/TL
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