482
FXUS62 KMHX 280630
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
230 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED POPS TODAY, AS WELL AS SHIFTING THUNDERSTORM THREAT
FURTHER SOUTH.
LOWERED POPS FOR SATURDAY.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
2) DRIER AND COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI INTO SATURDAY.
3) ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING AN EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY.
4) NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE TODAY, ESP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF ENC.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE FORCING MECHANISMS AT PLAY (FRONT MOVING
SOUTH AND SEA/RIVER/SOUND BREEZES), AND WHERE THESE INTERACT
WILL PRESENT THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH 30+ KT OF BULK SHEAR,
STRONG INSTABILITY (1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE), AND 2" PWATS.
HOWEVER, EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ACT AS A
'STABILIZING' AGENT, ALONG WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM SAID
ACTIVITY, THUS LIMITING SEVERETY AND COVG OF STORMS. THE
RRFS/HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS, AND THUS HAVE
DECREASED POPS FROM LIKELIES, TO HIGH CHC AND RETAINED THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS, GENERALLY SOUTH OF HWY
70. IF SOME STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP, THEY MAY UTILIZE THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE AND COULD
POSE A LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT, WITH SOME HAIL POSSIBLE
AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA THIS EVENING,
LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY AS NE
FLOW DEVELOPS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
ON SATURDAY, THOUGH DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL LIMIT HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS, AND THUS HAVE CONT TO TREND LOWER WITH SHOWER
CHANCES ON SAT, WITH LESS THAN 10% CHANCES FOR THE NORTH, AND NO
HIGHER THAN 30-40% SRN ZONES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING EVEN DRIER AND COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPS ACTUALLY DROPPING BELOW
CLIMO FOR A CHANGE, WITH 75-80 FOR HIGHS, AND MID 50S INLAND TO
LOW 60S COAST FOR LOWS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...BY MONDAY, RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH
PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO PASS THROUGH LATE MON OR EARLY
TUE. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH FOR THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM, BUT LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY MEANS THAT MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS WOULD ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, AND POPS ONLY IN THE
30% RANGE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RETAINED VCSH FOR SOME PRECIP THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ENC
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ADVANCING COLD FRONT. VCTS FOR KPGV AS
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND SOME LIGHTNING OCCURS THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS BEING
THE MAIN CULPRIT THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO ALL
AREAS AFTER SUNRISE ON THURS. CHANCES FOR STORMS HAS DECREASED
FOR THUR, AND WITH LACK OF APPRECIABLE COVERAGE, HAVE NOT
INDICATED A PROB30 OR VCTS YET FOR POTENTIAL ACTIVITY THU
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY): DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING THUR NIGHT
AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS ON SAT, BUT FORECAST TRENDING DRIER. NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON MONDAY WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO
PASS THROUGH MON NIGHT.
MARINE
20-25 KT CONT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET, BUT
THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 25 KT FOR PAMLICO SO HAVE
CANCELLED THE SCA HERE. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 6 FT THROUGH ABOUT
MID- MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. SCAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF
THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS BECOMING N TO NE BEHIND
THE FROPA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS ENC AND REMAINING THROUGH
LATE FRI. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. WINDS TURN BACK AROUND TO THE S ON
SAT AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH WINDS
BECOMING N TO NE AGAIN AND STRENGTHENING TO SCA LEVELS FOR AT
LEAST THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND, WITH SEAS RESPONDING
BY BUILDING TO 6+ FT. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LATER SAT
THROUGH SUN.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
154-156-158.
DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL
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