638
FXUS62 KMHX 282318
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
718 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED TO LOWER POPS TODAY.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
2) DRIER AND COOLER FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
3) A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING AN EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY.
4) NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA AND IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO HIGHWAY 264.
THIS BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH ANY SEA/RIVER/SOUND BREEZES TODAY WILL
BE THE FORCING MECHANISMS AT PLAY FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWN IN TERMS OF COVERAGE,
BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 40-45 KT
OF BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA WITH 1.5-2" PWATS AND 1000-1500
J/KG MLCAPE ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70. THIS WILL BE THE AREA
MOST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA TONIGHT,
LEAVING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY AS
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 264 (30-60%).
KEY MESSAGE 3...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND USHER IN EVEN DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO FINISH
OUT THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE MID-50S/LOW-60S SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 4...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY-
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES PEAKING MONDAY NIGHT NEAR THE COAST
(40-60%).
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER EASTERN NC TERMINALS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE ALREADY
SHOWING SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING OUT AND EXPECT SKC THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
POINT TO BOUNDARY LAYER NOT REACHING FULL SATURATION SO ODDS FOR
FOG APPEAR LOW (LESS THAN 10%), BUT SOME PATCHY INSTANCES OVER
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST TOMORROW WITH VARIABLE WINDS GIVING WAY
TO SEA AND SOUND BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CIRRI
LATE ASSOCIATED WITH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STATES.
OUTLOOK: DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THERE'S A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY (GREATEST ALONG THE COAST), BUT THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WON'T BE UNTIL MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
MARINE
WE'RE HEADLINE FREE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST OBS SHOWING 10-20
KT WINDS AND 2-5 FT SEAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH GREATEST CHANCES BEING SOUTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS. WINDS WILL BECOME NEERLY ACROSS ALL WATERS BY
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE SW BY TOMORROW EVENING WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4
FT.
OUTLOOK: 10-20 KT SW WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL VEER TO THE NE
BY SATURDAY EVENING AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
THIS NEERLY SURGE WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
RESPOND BY BUILDING TO 5-9 FT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, NE WINDS
WILL HAVE DECREASED TO 10-20 KT BUT 6+ FT SEAS MAY LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF MONDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...OJC
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