378
FXUS62 KMHX 290719
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
319 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS FOR LATE SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUNDS AND
COASTAL WATERS.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRIER AND COOLER FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
2) A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING AN EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY.
3) NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
TODAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING NARROWED
DOWN TO A KINSTON TO NEW BERN TO OCRACOKE LINE. HAVE DECREASED
POPS NORTH OF THIS AREA, WHILE MAINTAINING THE 40-60% POPS TO
THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND USHER IN EVEN DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS DROP TO 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH THIS FROPA. LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE MID-50S (INLAND) TO LOW-60S (BEACHES) SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. A BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS ENCOMPASSING MOST
OF THE FA WITH POPS PEAKING AT 50-70% LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING
FOR TUE INTO MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE POINT TO BOUNDARY
LAYER NOT REACHING FULL SATURATION SO ODDS FOR FOG APPEAR LOW
(LESS THAN 10%), BUT SOME PATCHY INSTANCES OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH LIGHT AND VAR WINDS, BECOMING SOUTH
WITH ADVANCEMENT OF SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY TODAY. JUST SOME
OCNL CIRRUS OR SCT MID LEVEL DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TODAY.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE`S A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY (GREATEST CHANCES FOR
ISO, EWN, AND PGV. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH DRY
AIR RETURING FOR SUNDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
MARINE
WINDS WILL BECOME NEERLY ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH TODAY IN WAKE
OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW BY LATE TODAY
WITH NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING. SEAS REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
FT.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): 10-20 KT SW WINDS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL VEER TO THE NE BY SATURDAY EVENING AS A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS NEERLY SURGE WILL
INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SATURDAY NIGHT
AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY BUILDING TO
5-9 FT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, NE WINDS WILL HAVE DECREASED TO
10-20 KT BUT 6+ FT SE AS MAY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF
MONDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL
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