935
FXUS62 KMHX 291030
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
630 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS FOR LATE SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUNDS AND
COASTAL WATERS.
POTENTIAL LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT FOR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRIER AND COOLER FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON SATURDAY.
2) A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING AN EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY.
3) NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
TODAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW ENSUES. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE,
AIDED BY SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY. THIS WILL BRING OUR
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING NARROWED DOWN TO A KINSTON TO NEW BERN TO OCRACOKE LINE
AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE DECREASED POPS NORTH OF THIS AREA, WHILE
MAINTAINING THE 40-60% POPS TO THE SOUTH.
A LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE CRYSTAL COAST
AND ONSLOW, AS SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT COINCIDING WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING AID IN A ZONE OF MODERATELY
HIGH INSTABILITY/CAPE POOLING JUST AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE STRONG LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE
IF ANY UPDRAFTS CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND USHER IN EVEN DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS DROP TO 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO WITH THIS FROPA. LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE MID-50S (INLAND) TO LOW-60S (BEACHES) SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. A BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS ENCOMPASSING MOST
OF THE FA WITH POPS PEAKING AT 50-70% LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING
FOR TUE INTO MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH LIGHT AND VBL WINDS, BECOMING SOUTH
WITH ADVANCEMENT OF SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY TODAY. JUST SOME
OCNL CIRRUS OR SCT MID LEVEL DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TODAY.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): THERE`S A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY (GREATEST CHANCES
FOR EWN AND OAJ) AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MEETS THE SEABREEZE IN
THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH DRY AIR
RETURING FOR SUNDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
MARINE
WINDS WILL BECOME NEERLY ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH TODAY IN WAKE
OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW BY LATE TODAY
WITH NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING. SEAS REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
FT.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): 10-20 KT SW WINDS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL VEER TO THE NE AND INC RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A SHARP BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS DROPS THORUGH THE WATERS. THIS
NEERLY SURGE WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30
KT LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
RESPOND BY BUILDING TO 5-9 FT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, NE WINDS
WILL HAVE DECREASED TO 10-20 KT BUT 6+ FT SE AS MAY LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF MONDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL
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