761
FXUS62 KMHX 291850
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
250 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
INCREASED POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN ZONES.
DECREASED TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
2) DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND SATURDAY'S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
3) NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER THE FORECAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. GREATEST POPS ARE CONCENTRATED
MAINLY SOUTH OF KINSTON/NEW BERN/CAPE HATTERAS, AND WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM QUICKLY. AREAS OF
ENHANCED LIFT FROM FROPA AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS COULD GENERATE
A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS MORE MUTED GIVEN THAT THE
BEST SHEAR WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE
OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL TAKE OVER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH LOWS DIPPING TO THE MID 50S INLAND/LOW 60S OBX SATURDAY NIGHT.
BELOW CLIMO HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER-70S INLAND/UPPER-
60S OBX. TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH INLAND HIGHS
APPROACHING 80 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW RESUMES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AND BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL PEAK MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CU. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SWERLY.
WINDS WILL START TO VEER TO THE N TOMORROW AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS FRONT, AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE, WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA (GREATEST CHANCES FOR EWN AND OAJ).
OUTLOOK: THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT AND
GENERATE A NEERLY SURGE IN ITS WAKE (GUSTS TO 15-20 KT INLAND, 20-25
KT ALONG THE OBX). THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
MARINE
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SWERLY TONIGHT AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW, QUICKLY VEERING THE WINDS TO THE NE. THIS NE SURGE
WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY BUILDING TO 5-8
FT SATURDAY NIGHT. SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT FOR
THE INLAND RIVERS STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: NE WINDS WILL RELAX ON SUNDAY, BUT 6+ FT SEAS MAY LINGER
INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...OJC
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