055
FXUS62 KMHX 292356
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
756 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
INCREASED POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN ZONES.
DECREASED TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
2) DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND SATURDAY'S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
3) NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER THE FORECAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. GREATEST POPS ARE CONCENTRATED
MAINLY SOUTH OF KINSTON/NEW BERN/CAPE HATTERAS, AND WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM QUICKLY. AREAS OF
ENHANCED LIFT FROM FROPA AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS COULD GENERATE
A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS MORE MUTED GIVEN THAT THE
BEST SHEAR WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE
OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL TAKE OVER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH LOWS DIPPING TO THE MID 50S INLAND/LOW 60S OBX SATURDAY NIGHT.
BELOW CLIMO HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER-70S INLAND/UPPER-
60S OBX. TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH INLAND HIGHS
APPROACHING 80 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW RESUMES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AND BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL PEAK MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REMAINS STEADY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DIVE
OUT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC SAT MORNING. WINDS AND INCREASING CIRRI
FROM THIS EVENING'S CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD PRECLUDE
A WIDESPREAD FOG RISK ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY INSTANCES IN AREAS PRONE TO DECOUPLING GIVEN MOISTER
BOUNDARY LAYER.
WINDS WILL START TO VEER TO THE N TOMORROW AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR AN EARLY
START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MIGRATING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ENVIRONMENT APPEARS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 30-40 KT. FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH BY END OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH STRONGER AND GUSTY NE WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES.
OUTLOOK: THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. DRYING OUT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
MARINE
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SWERLY TONIGHT AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW, QUICKLY VEERING THE WINDS TO THE NE. THIS NE SURGE
WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY BUILDING TO 5-8
FT SATURDAY NIGHT. SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT FOR
THE INLAND RIVERS STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: NE WINDS WILL RELAX ON SUNDAY, BUT 6+ FT SEAS MAY LINGER
INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...OJC
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