447
FXUS62 KMHX 301030
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
630 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
DECREASED SPURIOUS NORTHERN OBX TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY 1-7
PERIOD.
ADDED NEUSE RIVER TO SCA SUITE TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON.
2) DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND SATURDAY'S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
3) NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER
THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
GREATEST POPS ARE CONCENTRATED MAINLY SOUTH OF KINSTON/NEW
BERN/CAPE HATTERAS LINE, AND WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY (30%). AREAS OF ENHANCED LIFT
FROM FROPA AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS COULD GENERATE A STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS MORE MUTED GIVEN THAT THE BEST
SHEAR WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR
FOR A MORE SUSTAINABLE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LACK OF
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE, AS GOM WILL BE CUT OFF AS A MOISTURE
SOURCE. NEVERTHELESS, THINKING THAT WITH SHARP SFC FORCING AND
CAPE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS, AND THUS LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN THE
FCST FOR SRN 1/3 OF THE FA, WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE RAIN
FREE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL TAKE OVER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH LOWS DIPPING TO THE MID 50S INLAND/LOW 60S OBX SAT NIGHT
AND SUN NIGHT. BELOW CLIMO HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPR 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OBX. TD'S WILL PLUMMET
AS WELL, MAKING IT FEEL QUITE REFRESHING AND A WELCOME RESPITE
FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH
INLAND HIGHS APPROACHING 80 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND
SW FLOW RESUMES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AND BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH POPS IN THE 60-80%
RANGE, PEAKING MON AFTERNOON THROUGH MON EVENING. SOME WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS MAY BE IN THE PICTURE FOR TUE AS A LOW PRES AREA
FORMS OFF THE FRONT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
ATTM.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PD AS HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS STEADY
AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DIVE OUT OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON.
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NE AND INC. HAVE INCLUDED
A TEMPO GROUP FOR GUSTY NERLY WINDS THIS EVENING AS SEVERAL
HOURS OF GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT. HAVE A PROB30 FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR KEWN AND KOAJ, AS SOUTHERN AREAS OF ENC COULD
SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
40 KT ALONG WITH TEMPO REDUCTIONS IN VSBY WITH AREAS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS. NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE ON MONDAY INTO MON EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT. DRYING OUT TUE INTO WED AS COOL HIGH PRES
REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION.
MARINE
SWERLY WINDS THIS MORNING 15-20 KT WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT AS
THE GRADIENT INC AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM NE TO SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, QUICKLY VEERING THE WINDS TO THE NE WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY BUILDING TO 5-8 FT AND PEAKING
TONIGHT. SCAS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED FOR NEUSE RIVER AS FAVORABLE
WIND DIRECTION OF 60-90 DEGREES ALLOWS FOR FUNNELING UP THE
NEUSE.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): NE WINDS WILL RELAX ON
SUNDAY, BUT 6+ FT SEAS WILL LINGER, ESP FOR THE CTRL COASTAL
WATERS OCRACOKE TO OREGON INLET INTO MONDAY WITH LARGE SWELL
6+ FT CONTINUING HERE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA WINDS/SEAS TUE INTO
WED AS LOW PRES COULD FORM OFFSHORE AND PRODUCE GUSTY N TO NE
WINDS AND 6+ FT SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL
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