479
FXUS62 KMHX 140036
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
836 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PAMLICO, ROANOKE,
CROATAN SOUND AND OUR COASTAL WATERS STARTING SUN AFTERNOON.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THUNDERSTORM RISK REMAIN TODAY WITH MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. RAINFALL CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEK.
2) HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 THIS
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT REMAINS LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 80S TO THE MID 90S, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS NOTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HWY 70 AS A STALLED FRONT FRONT IS LOCATED FROM W-E ALONG THE HWY
70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT
N AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AGITATED CU FIELD
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEABREEZE TODAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SEABREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
FURTHER INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND BE THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW
STORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE IN NATURE. WITH MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG, DCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG, AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AROUND 5.5-6.5 C/KM) QUICKLY
DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS ARE FORECAST TODAY. COMBINED WITH PWATS
GENERALLY AROUND 2" TODAY, THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD PROMOTE A THREAT
FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS (40-60 MPH), FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. SPC HAS ALSO
HIGHLIGHTED THE SEABREEZE CORRIDOR (SW OF MAINLAND HYDE/DARE
COUNTIES) WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY. THIS THUNDERSTORM RISK CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DO EXPECT A
QUIETER NIGHT TONIGHT THUNDERSTORM WISE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MID AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO DEVELOP DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THE SEABREEZE ACTIVITY TODAY. LOWS GET INTO THE
MID 70S TONIGHT NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS ENC SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS CROSSING THE FA INTO MIDWEEK. THIS
OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WHEN TROUGHING ALOFT DEVELOPS, OPENING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULDN'T BE READ AS
A HIGH COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ON SUNDAY, PREFRONTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS AROUND THE COASTAL PLAIN PROVIDING THE NECESSARY
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ACTIVITY LIKELY STARTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND
PROGRESSES E'WARDS AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG) AND
INCREASE SHEAR WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 25-35 KTS A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN NATURE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
LIKELY NOTED ALONG OUR NORTHERN TIER. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. SPC HAS THE FAR
NORTHERN SECTION OF OUR FA IN A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5) RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THEN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AND MAY REINVIGORATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE WHERE HIGHEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE NOTED.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGHER THAN CLIMO SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ARE IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE GREATER MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE COLUMN
LEADING TO PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2". ADDITIONALLY, DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
AROUND 30-35KT WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG ANOTHER FRONT SET TO
APPROACH AND STALL OVER THE AREA MON MAY SUPPORT A MODEST INCREASE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON
THE STRONG SIDE. THE LAST OF A SERIES OF FRONTS FINALLY PUSHES OFF
THE COAST BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR LOWER PRECIP CHANCES OUTSIDE OF A
DAILY SEABREEZE. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER
FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2... NO REAL CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM AS MORE CLIMO HIGH
AND LOW TEMPS MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST
INTO MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, AS WE GET INTO THURS/FRI NEXT WEEK HEAT AND
HUMIDITY LOOK TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WHICH COULD BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT INDICES AND RELATED HEALTH IMPACTS.
PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 50-70% CHANCE AT
REACHING MAJOR LEVEL HEAT RISK THRESHOLDS ON THURS/FRI WHICH IS
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE THREAT AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THOSE
THAT ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE HOW THINGS CONTINUE TO
TREND AND TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS IF NEEDED. IN ADDITION TO
THIS, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ABNORMALLY STRONG LOW,
(WITH A SURFACE PRESSURE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN FOR THE TIME OF YEAR), WILL
DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS AROUND MIDWEEK AND PUSH NE'WARDS ON
THURS/FRI INTO THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT THE SAME TIME LATE NEXT WEEK.
COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN QUITE A BIT RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANONYMOUSLY WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL IF CURRENT
TRENDS HOLD. ECMWF EFI FOR WIND GUSTS ON THURSDAY ARE CLOSER TO
THE 80TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THURSDAY LENDING SOME CREDENCE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WINDS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEAKENING EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF SFC HEATING BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 02Z BRINGING BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT IS
BRINGING HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR STRATUS WITH HREF PROBS AROUND
40-60% DEVELOPING AFTER 07Z THROUGH AROUND 14Z. A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. WITH INCREASING SHEAR DEVELOPING,
MUCH OF THE REGION IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
FAR NW RTES IN A SLIGHT RISK. WINDS WILL BECOME SW SUNDAY WITH
GRADIENTS TIGHTENING AND COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT INLAND
AND TO AROUND 25 KT ALONG THE COAST.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS OVER THE AREA MON
LEADING TO A WET PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR
SUB VFR FLIGHT CATS UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MARINE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA WATERS
EXTENDING FROM THE NEUSE RIVER NE'WARDS TO RODANTHE AND POINTS
NORTH. THIS HAS RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY 5-15 KTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS), BUT A CHAOTIC WIND FIELD RANGING
FROM SW'RLY WINDS S OF THE FRONT TO NE-E WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT. SEAS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED AROUND 2-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PERSIST AT THESE HEIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING AS WELL THROUGH TONIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMING S'RLY ACROSS ALL WATERS AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS N AS
A WARM FRONT. COULD SEE SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A
LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REGION WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED. THEN AS WE GET INTO SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
ALLOWING S-SW WINDS ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE NEUSE RIVER,
PAMLICO/ROANOKE/CROATAN SOUND, AND ALL COASTAL WATERS TO
INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS STARTING SUN
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO MON MORNING RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUANCE ACROSS THESE WATERS. OCCASIONAL GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS (20+ NM OFFSHORE), BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE GALE ISSUANCE. LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUNDS AND ADJACENT RIVERS SO SCA'S ARE NOT PLANNED
HERE. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 4-6 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SUN EVENING AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. ON TOP OF ALL OF
THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
OUTLOOK (SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED): THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH BEST CHANCES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. THE LAST IN A SERIES OF
FRONTS CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
RETURNING THEREAFTER. A CHANCE AT SCA TO POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE
WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER
FRONT BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR MORE CLARITY ON
THE WIND FORECAST.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ135-152-154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ137-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ150.
DISCUSSION...MS/RCF
AVIATION...SK/MS/RCF
MARINE...MS/RCF
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