829
FXUS62 KMHX 141341
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
941 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR MOST OF EASTERN NC THIS MORNING.
ADJUSTED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LINGERS INTO
LATE WEEK.
2) HEAT ADVISORY REISSUED FOR ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
DANGEROUS HEAT LIKELY TO RETURN LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... ONLY CHANGE MADE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAYS
FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS ALONG THE SEABREEZE TO SCHC TO CHC AS
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS DEPICTED LOWER
COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE OVERALL TREND CALLS FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING YESTERDAY'S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND WESTWARD BUT BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE. WELL
TO OUR WEST IS A STRONGER COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING S/W TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD LATER
TODAY.
AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL BE RECOVERING TODAY AS
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. WITH HIGHS REACHING
BACK WELL INTO THE 90S AND TDS STILL SITTING IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MEAN SURFACE CAPE CLIMBING ABOVE 1500-2000 J/KG AND HIGH-END
SCENARIOS DEPICTING VALUES NORTH OF 3000 J/KG. SHEAR, HOWEVER,
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH LESS THAN 20 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE AND AROUND 20-25 KT TO THE NORTH. THIS IS AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD SUPPORT SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED STORMS, WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE PRIMARILY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS INITIATION AND TIMING. MOST
GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY BULLISH ON THE SEABREEZE BEING A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON THE 00Z SUITE, INSTEAD FAVORING DEVELOPMENT TO
OUR WEST ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
STATE WITH FURTHER DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OFF OF RESULTING
OUTFLOW. THE HRRR HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE ON THIS,
SHOWING MORE ROBUST CONVECTION ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER 6-7 PM
ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN. OUR FORECAST SHOWS POPS
INCREASING AFTER THE 2-3 PM RANGE, WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEABREEZE. AIRMASS REMAINS
UNSTABLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT A CONTINUED RISK
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AFTER
NIGHTFALL WITH THREAT POTENTIALLY NOT MOVING FULLY OFFSHORE
UNTIL AFTER 2 AM MONDAY.
BEYOND TODAY, OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK REMAINS AT LEAST
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREATS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS
APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT
WHERE DEEPER SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT WITH EQUALLY STRONG
INSTABILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WITH DELAYED CONVECTIVE INITIATION FORECAST,
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL HANG ON FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY
ALLOWING HEAT INDICES TO ONCE AGAIN CLIMB NORTH OF 105 LATE THIS
MORNING AND LASTING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. RISK OF DANGEROUS
HEAT IS MORE EXPANSIVE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NO LONGER IN THE PICTURE, AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR ALL BUT COASTAL AREAS. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES UNTIL 00Z, BUT
THIS MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
ONCE THE FIRST FRONT PASSES ON MONDAY, A RELATIVELY COOLER
COUPLE OF DAYS ARE LIKELY. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY RETURN
AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE LATE-WEEK FRONT WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110 FORECAST.
AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BANK OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN NC TERMINALS EARLIER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
LINGER AFTER SUNRISE. THIS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS STEADILY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, AND
ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 13Z. WINDS BECOME GUSTY LATE THIS
MORNING BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
AREA. ISO TO SCT STORMS LIKELY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LIKELY TO ENTER FROM THE
WEST AFTER 21-22Z, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH
03-04Z. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40 KT. BEHIND THE CONVECTION, ANOTHER PRE-DAWN BANK OF
LOW STRATUS COULD DEVELOP INLAND. FOG APPEARS LESS LIKELY WITH
WINDS UNLIKELY TO DECOUPLE.
OUTLOOK: FRONT CLEARS AREA TOMORROW ALTHOUGH ISO TO SCT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL EXTEND INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE THREAT RETURNS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH STRONGER FRONT. OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS THREAT POSSIBLE
EACH EVENING.
MARINE
LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE HEADLINES THIS MORNING. FORECAST CALLS
FOR INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS AREA WATERS ON MONDAY. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SAID CONDITIONS IS ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS AND
PAMLICO SOUND WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND RIVERS AND ADJACENT SOUNDS. OUTSIDE OF
SCA CONDITIONS, THERE WILL BE A RENEWED RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AFTER NIGHTFALL AS MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION INLAND MIGRATES OVER AREA WATERS AFTER 00Z.
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT.
OUTLOOK (MON THROUGH SAT): PERIODIC NOCTURNAL AND EARLY MORNING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE EACH WEEKNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH MOST LIKELY ODDS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF STRONGER FRONT APPROACHING AREA WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL
ALSO BE THE NEXT FOCUS OF WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS WITH A LOW
RISK OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-199.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ137-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
DISCUSSION...MS/RCF
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...MS
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