154
FXUS62 KMHX 150542
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
142 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CANCELLED THE HEAT ADVISORY.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LINGERS INTO
LATE WEEK.
2) HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR TODAY. DANGEROUS HEAT
LIKELY TO RETURN LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A HOT AND MUGGY AFTERNOON ACROSS ENC TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO 90S AND HEAT INDICES AROUND
100-109F INLAND. A DIURNAL CU FIELD ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE
SEABREEZE HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEABREEZE
TODAY. LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM, AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20-25 KTS ACROSS ENC AS OF THIS
UPDATE. WITH THE SEABREEZE PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LIFT, EXPECT
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON UNDER THIS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH AMPLE CAPE, AND
ENOUGH LIFT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
IN NATURE BRINGING A THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS (UP TO 60 MPH
GUSTS), FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE AS
NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, AS THIS
OCCURS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, PEAKING AT 25-35 KTS OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES
NOTED ALONG OUR NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL LEAD INTO OUR
NEXT POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT FROM THE WEST. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BROKEN LINEAR SEGMENTS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL NC/VA AND PUSH E'WARDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
LIKELY REACHING THE AREA AFTER SUNSET. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO BE WANING, WITH ENOUGH SHEAR THESE SEGMENTS COULD
HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE A SECOND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO TONIGHT. GREATEST RISK FOR THIS SECOND
ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT
WITH THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY ABOUT 2AM MONDAY.
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD ONCE AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR STRONG AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (40-60 MPH) TO THE AREA. SPC HAS NOTED MUCH
OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY WEST OF THE COAST AND OBX WITH A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COAST AND OBX.
BEYOND TONIGHT, OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK REMAINS AT
LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREATS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER
FRONT WHERE DEEPER SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT WITH EQUALLY
STRONG INSTABILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS ALLOWED HEAT INDICES
TO DROP BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND HAVE CANCELLED THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
ONCE THE FIRST FRONT PASSES ON MONDAY, A RELATIVELY COOLER
COUPLE OF DAYS ARE LIKELY. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY RETURN
AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE LATE-WEEK FRONT WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110 FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS MAJORITY OF TERMINALS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME SPOTTY MVFR AND IFR ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST.
PRECIPITATION THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AND
ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO RISK OF PRE-DAWN BANK OF MVFR TO LOCALLY
IFR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING, WITH THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR OAJ
AND EWN WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FELL YESTERDAY. AN
ADDITIONAL WINDOW OF MVFR IS LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA AS LCLS ARE SLOW TO LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MAIN FRONT WITH CU FIELDS FORMING AT 2-3 KFT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS TRENDED DOWNWARDS FROM
YESTERDAY WITH MOST LIKELY AREA OF FORMATION EAST OF TERMINALS,
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MAIN FRONT IN CORRIDOR OF HIGHEST
INSTABILITY. OPTED TO REMOVE PROB30S FROM EWN TO OAJ BASED ON
THESE TRENDS AND CARRY A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT,
GUSTING UP TO 15 KT AT TIMES, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
INTO TUES AM.
OUTLOOK: ISO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL EXTEND INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE THREAT RETURNS
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH STRONGER FRONT. OVERNIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS THREAT POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
MARINE
ONCE AGAIN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST
AS WE DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO WORSEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT TO OUR WEST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. SW
WINDS ARE ALREADY ABOUT 10-20 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
NOTED ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS ALREADY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT NOT FORECAST TO CROSS OUR WATERS UNTIL MON MORNING
EXPECT WIDESPREAD 15-25KT SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 25-30
KTS ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS, PAMLICO, CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS
AND NEUSE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS COINCIDES WITH
ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AND DONT PLAN ON EXPANDING ONGOING SCA'S.
THESE ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUE INTO MON MORNING, BUT AS A COLD
FRONT TRACKS ACROSS OUR WATERS WINDS WILL EASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES WITH WINDS LOWERING TO 5-15 KTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TOWARDS 20 KTS ACROSS ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME NE'RLY BEHIND THE FRONT. 2-4 FT SEAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
INCREASE TO 4-6 FT ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LOWERING DOWN TO 3-5
FT BY 11AM MON. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO OUR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS ARE THEN FORECAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT HANGING AROUND THE
AREA. OUTSIDE OF SCA CONDITIONS, THERE WILL BE A RENEWED RISK
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AFTER NIGHTFALL AS MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION INLAND MIGRATES OVER AREA WATERS AFTER 00Z.
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT.
OUTLOOK (MON NIGHT THROUGH SAT): PERIODIC NOCTURNAL AND EARLY
MORNING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE EACH
WEEKNIGHT, ALTHOUGH MOST LIKELY ODDS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF STRONGER FRONT APPROACHING AREA WATERS. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT FOCUS OF WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS
WITH A LOW RISK OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ137-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
154-156-158.
DISCUSSION...MS/RCF
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...MS/RCF
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