693
FXUS62 KMHX 151036
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
636 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOWER RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NC WITH NEXT HIGHER-END THREAT THURS AND FRI AHEAD OF
STRONG FRONT.
2) DANGEROUS HEAT LIKELY TO RETURN LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND A PASSING FRONT
TODAY AND REMAINING IN CONTROL. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT WINDOW
AROUND MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 70 AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AND INTERACTS
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG. SOME
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS, BUT OTHERWISE A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MIGRATES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH THIS
FEATURE.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS REMAINS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT WHERE DEEPER SHEAR WILL LIKELY
BE PRESENT ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR
BACK INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 AND HUMIDITY REMAINS OPPRESSIVE.
LIKE YESTERDAY, BETTER KINEMATICS AND THUS HIGHER RISK OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE TO OUR NORTH IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC, BUT MEDIUM-RANGE AI NWP GUIDANCE STILL HIGHLIGHTS MUCH
OF THE CAROLINAS IN AN ELEVATED SEVERE RISK ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY, AND POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE
PRIMARY THREAT RISK IS DAMAGING WINDS, BUT OTHER HAZARDS REMAIN
ON THE TABLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT, RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. AS ALLUDED EARLIER, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LATE-WEEK FRONT WILL BOOST LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND KICK TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THURSDAY.
PAIRED WITH TDS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES
OF 105-110 ARE LIKELY. THE PASSING FRONT MAY COOL THINGS DOWN
BRIEFLY, BUT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS, SAVE
FOR A LOW STRATUS BANK STRETCHING FROM SC INTO THE INNER COASTAL
PLAIN AND CAUSING SOME CIG RESTRICTIONS AT ISO. ANY IFR WILL
LIKELY LIFT TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, AND OTHER
SITES WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR AS WELL AS CU FIELD
DEVELOPMENT GETS AN EARLY START AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS RDU THIS HOUR.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT REMAINS LOW THIS MORNING AS FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA, WITH MOST FAVORED AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH AND EAST OF EWN. STILL KEPT PROB30S
OMITTED FROM THE TAFS ALTHOUGH MINORITY OF GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS A SHOWER OR TWO COULD POP UP BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT
CROSSES THOSE TERMINALS. THE ODDS OF THIS OCCURRING ARE LOW -
AROUND 10% OR LESS. OWINDS GRADUALLY VEER NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT, GUSTING UP TO 15 KT AT TIMES, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INTO TUES AM. LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS
SATURATED OVERNIGHT, POINTING TO A COMPARATIVELY LOWER (BUT NOT
NIL) RISK OF FOG/LOW STRATUS.
OUTLOOK: ISO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL EXTEND INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE THREAT RETURNS
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH STRONGER FRONT. OVERNIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS THREAT POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
MARINE
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA
WATERS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AT TIMES, FOCUSED
PRIMARILY OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AND OFFSHORE WATERS, WHERE SEAS
HAVE JUMPED UP TO 6-7 FEET.
FORECAST CALLS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS
FRONT PASSES OVER AREA WATERS WITH A SHIFT OF WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST BUT AT A WEAKER 10-15 KT. SOUNDSIDE SCA WILL LIKELY
COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WHILE OFFSHORE CONDITIONS
SHOULD FULLY IMPROVE BY SUNSET.
PASSING FRONT TODAY WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND THE
OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET.
OUTLOOK (MON NIGHT THROUGH SAT): PERIODIC NOCTURNAL AND EARLY
MORNING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE EACH
WEEKNIGHT, ALTHOUGH MOST LIKELY ODDS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF STRONGER FRONT APPROACHING AREA WATERS. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT FOCUS OF WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS
WITH A LOW RISK BUT INCREASING RISK OF GALES ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
154-156-158.
DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...MS
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